Daily Hand Post : AQs in the SB

[aK13]

Hmm...how does a check/call, bet/call sound?

I think if we check/raise him on the turn and he's got a mid PP TT-KK, he's gonna fold, but we might be able to squeeze an extra bet out of him on the river if we donkbet the river.

I also think it's going to cost us less when we're behind something like AK or A9 or AA(4BB), as he will surely 3bet our check/raise on the turn, but we will be obligated to call down (I think? or at least I don't have the discipline to raise/fold). If we check/call, bet/call river, we lose only 3BB. If we're ahead on the turn after we raise, his likely holdings are AJ or AT, and I don't think he's going to 3bet here fearing a bigger kicker. So from these hands, we earn the same from both lines, but we lose less when we're behind.

[GuyOnTilt]

[ QUOTE ]
EVERYTIME I'M FIRST TO RESPOND TO YOUR POST, YOU FCK IT UP, NEWB!

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't hate. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
This flop does change things, of sorts, where did the 744r flop go? I'll wait 10 mins to see what the next flop will be. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I was thinking of this hand and looking at the wrong HH. I definitely blame PT.

GoT

[Justin A]

Bump so that we may consider the check/call check/raise line, and also his little brother the check/call bet line.

[goofball]

this depends hugely on game conditions/opponent.

I almost always just keep the lead here. Preflop raisers who keep betting after no one has shown resistance are difficult to put on a hand.

I believe checking induces our villian to play correctly too. If he has a draw he'll take the free card, if he has a pair he might take the free card or he might bet planning on folding to a checkraise. If villian has a monster he'll just punish us either way but with a c/r it's villian's choice whether the turn get 3bet as opposed to our's.

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
this depends hugely on game conditions/opponent.

I almost always just keep the lead here. Preflop raisers who keep betting after no one has shown resistance are difficult to put on a hand.

I believe checking induces our villian to play correctly too. If he has a draw he'll take the free card, if he has a pair he might take the free card or he might bet planning on folding to a checkraise. If villian has a monster he'll just punish us either way but with a c/r it's villian's choice whether the turn get 3bet as opposed to our's.

[/ QUOTE ]

What draws do you expect him to have here?

If he's going to check and take a free card, he would have folded to our turn bet anyway. This is a very clear WA/WB situation.

[party36master]

I like bet/call, Donkbet/fold.

I think a turn checkraise pushes CO off a hand like KK, who was waiting for the turn to raise. If you bet, he may call you down or raise the turn.

Same comment for AJ, AT. Bet, he may raise.

Then donkbet the river, and you can safely fold to a second raise.

[thejameser]

bet until raised and then call down.

[Paxosmotic]

CO could open with a huge range of hands here and might see our 3-bet as a resteal. I see no reason to give up the lead on this hand yet. Bet here and check the river to induce a bluff. If raised here you can safely call down, I believe.

[party36master]

[ QUOTE ]
I like bet/call, Donkbet/fold.

I think a turn checkraise pushes CO off a hand like KK, who was waiting for the turn to raise. If you bet, he may call you down or raise the turn.

Same comment for AJ, AT. Bet, he may raise.

Then donkbet the river, and you can safely fold to a second raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me go into this in more detail.
Comparing Bet/call Donkbet/fold to the turn checkraise.

Suppose CO has JJ. If I'm CO, I raise the turn. I can push hero off of KK, QQ, a weak-tight AQ, AJ, or AT. (AJ and AT are pre-flop 3 bet possibilities due to defending against the blind steal). Of course I fold to river donkbet.
So turn checkraise wins 1 bet, and Bet/Call Donkbet wins 2 bets.
Same type of analysis w/QQ KK.

Now suppose I'm CO with AJ or AT. I raise the turn. I don't fold, otherwise why did I call the flop. I raise, to gain small fold equity to push hero off of AQ, AJ, plus my hand is good against KK, QQ, JJ, etc.
The donkbet on the river is now tough. I consider calling.
Again, the turn checkraise wins 1 bet, since I would fold.
So turn checkraise wins 1 bet, Bet/call donkbet wins 2 or 3 bets.

As hero, against AK or a set, turn checkraise loses 2 bets, and Bet/call donkbet loses 3 bets.

I think if you believe CO will play this way, and spin the math, Bet/call donkbet is better.

[WillMagic]

[ QUOTE ]
check the river to induce a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

ewwwwwwwwwwwwwww

Will