JJ heads-up, an A flops...

Im constantly being faced with these kinds of decitions and I dont have a clue what to do...

Only have 200 hand on villian: 28/8/3.1

Cryptologic 0.50/1.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(9 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO calls.

Flop: (6.00 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero....

[Jingleheimer]

Fold- what does he have that you beat? He is raising you after your PF 3 bet and your flop lead on a A high flop. JJ no good.

[Mathieu]

I'd prefer a real read of what he raises with, but 200 hands is a decent sample for these numbers.

3.1 is a high aggression factor for someone who has v$ip of 28. I am thinking he probably goes too far with his hands so he could be doing his fare share of spewing. But yet again he could have just caught some big flops this session.

Is he raising this flop HU with a hand like 77-TT, or even KQ? I'm thinking he might be trying to move you off a big pair.

The problem with calling the flop is that villain will rarely check the turn if he is trying to push you out. So you end up calling down all the way or calling in hopes that a J or an A (making you more confident)falls on the turn. You have no backdoor draw and there are no draws that villain could be raising.


If we do the math: calling down costs us 5 more sb when behind and makes us about 11 sb when ahead (he might check behind on the river). This is a rough estimate but it seems like we need to be good about 1 time out of 3. I think you have to fold because there are too many Ax combinations that he could have that beat you (that he can raise in CO). It seems like he has to raise almost every time in this situation with a 66-TT to justify a call down. I doubt that he is this aggressive.

Anyways the best advice I can give you is to take notes and get real reads. 200 hands should be more than enough for that.

[Agthorr]

[ QUOTE ]
there are too many Ax combinations that he could have that beat you (that he can raise in CO).

[/ QUOTE ]

Villian raised from CO after it was folded to him. There may be a good chance he raised trying for a steal, in which case his pre-flop raise means... he has two cards. When you re-raise and A flops, Villian figures you are much more likely to have TT-KK or something like KQs than Ax. You lead out, but many players automatically lead out after making the last raise pre-flop, so he doesn't take that as a sign you must have an A. Reasoning this way, he tries a bluff raise, hoping you fear that he has an A.

Villian can raise correctly in this situation with his two cards if there's at least a 1 in 3 chance that you will fold, so his raise doesn't necessarily tell you much about his cards. If he has any kind of draw, he can raise correctly even more often with a semi-bluff raise, with the extra benefit of possibly getting a free card later.

Maybe I am giving Villian too much credit for fancy thinking, but I wouldn't fold unless I know Villian wouldn't try to steal the blinds or wouldn't bluff/semi-bluff raise.

If he's bluffing, re-raising or betting out again may cause him to fold. Unfortunately, it's still possible he does have an A, which makes either option dangerous.

I'd call down.

He's way too aggressive to put any stock in his flop raise. Even if this flop is as dry as nun's nasty.

I'd call down, unless a K or Q fell, then I'm likely to give it up.

Just c/r this guy a lot. Make him fear a check.

[irishpint]

you go to arty tabke now@