Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week One

jedinite · #1 09-08-2005, 05:53 PM

Resume / intro at the end of the post, if you care... moved down there in case you don't care... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Detroit -3 over Green Bay
Everyone on the planet thinks Green Bay is a lock here (2+2 is one of the only places where I've seen a general consensus to go the other way). Mostly because of Detroit's last serious preseason game, the debacle against St. Louis. I think Detroit is going to come out and more than make up for their preseason fiasco. You're going to see Kevin Jones establish the run (he'll put up one of the best performances among RB in week one) and then Harrington will be able to throw over the top to his fantastic cadre of receivers - everyone shredded the Pack's pass defense last year, and this year Detroit has the most dangerous group of receivers anywhere. Favre will throw two, maybe three interceptions, Green gives away at least one fumble. Game of the week... 27-17 Lions.

Philly -1 at Atlanta
You're seeing a lot of respect for Vick in the dome with this line, and more than a little bit of doubt around T.O. But Philly's run defense is more solid than a lot of people give them credit for - they struggled last year in games which Trotter sat out (which made their season numbers look a lot worse), but firmed up dramatically once Trotter was back in the starting lineup. And T.O.'s preseason performances should put any doubt to rest about his ability to click with McNabb. Philly tore up Atlanta last year, and they're going to do it again this year. This is very close to being my game of the week. Philly 28-14.

Denver -5 at Miami.
Miami is, well, Miami. Denver is a team that traditionally starts the season strong and they should have no trouble dominating the Dolphins in Miami. Its pretty obvious, but the Dolphins are still really, really bad. Miami has a lot of key defensive personnel already banged up (Daniels, Seau, Thomas, Bowens), a terrible offensive line, and zero scoring threats outside of Chris Chambers. Miami is going to try to run, and Denver returned the core of the NFL's fourth best rush defense last year. Wouldn't be suprised to see this one go to a two-three touchdown lead for Denver, but I'll call it as 21-14

St. Louis -6.5 at San Francisco
As bad as the Ram's defense is, its not worse than San Franciso's offense. This is going to be an easy blowout i think. The line's crept up from opening at 4-4.5, but as long as its under 7 its playable in my opinion. Final 31-17 Rams

My other possible was Indy -3 over the Ravens, but this line scares me. That low it makes me think that its a sucker line to encourage action on Indy and that the Ravens would be the sleeper pick, so I'm going to stay away. I also think KC -3 over the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets isn't a bad play either... but not in my top four. The KC defense should be much improved over last year, the offense should be high powered and clicking from the get-go, and Pennington is still playing catch up from missing most of camp + preseason. This game might see some action, but doesn't rank

FYI my pics will be archived on my poker blog, performify.com

I've been sports betting actively for eleven years. Last year was my first losing regular season - but I closed the gap to a profitable year with a near-flawless postseason including perfect championship + superbowl pics.

For the last three years i've maintained a free email list of my weekly picks - i've found that talking out my picks with people on the list has really helped improve my game selection.

Last year I found two+two and certainly took a lot from the forums here. I posted my pics for the first half of the year, and then sadly fell off 2+2 participation around mid-season. I'm going to try to stick with posting here all year, including playing in the 3+1 challenge every week.

Stellastarr · #2 09-09-2005, 03:36 AM

I like your picks. Good write up. Im looking forward to more of this in the coming weeks. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

craig r · #3 09-09-2005, 03:40 AM

Why do you pick 4 games each week? What if one week there are more +ev situations? Or another week there are less? I can't see how you can know ahead of time that you will only have 4 picks.

craig

charmy · #4 09-09-2005, 04:19 AM

I agree with you on Philly. Do a search under my name. I also agree with you on the Rams. I got in at 5.5. The last time the Rams played in San Francisco was 10/03/04. Rams 24 Niners 14. In that game, the Rams were favored by 3.5. So I believe that you are correct in saying that as long as the spread stays under 7 that this is playable. Come on Craig. More than 4 plus EV games in a week? Well, if there are then Bob Scucci should start submitting his resume. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

#5 09-09-2005, 10:58 AM

Thanks for the write up Performify.
I'm looking forward to reading your picks each week.
Keep up the good work.

craig r · #6 09-09-2005, 02:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with you on Philly. Do a search under my name. I also agree with you on the Rams. I got in at 5.5. The last time the Rams played in San Francisco was 10/03/04. Rams 24 Niners 14. In that game, the Rams were favored by 3.5. So I believe that you are correct in saying that as long as the spread stays under 7 that this is playable. Come on Craig. More than 4 plus EV games in a week? Well, if there are then Bob Scucci should start submitting his resume. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I guarantee there are weeks that there are more than 4 games with +ev. And if you add totals into the mix, then there definitely are. He said he always picks 4 games. I also would be willing to bet that there are weeks when there aren't 4 +ev games. What happens then?

craig

scott8 · #7 09-09-2005, 02:50 PM

I don't see where the OP said that he was always going to pick 4 games (I definately could be wrong).

craig r · #8 09-09-2005, 03:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see where the OP said that he was always going to pick 4 games (I definately could be wrong).

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to go to his website (blog) to see it. so you are DEFINITELY wrong and I hope Tech bans you because of it. There is no place for mistakes on this forum [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] .

craig

jedinite · #9 09-09-2005, 04:23 PM

I usually pick the top four games as I see them. No particular reason, that just seems like a good number. I handicap all the games and pick what I believe to be the top four in order of most value.

There have been weeks in the past where i've picked as few as two games, and there are weeks where i've picked more. Its an arbitrary number. Sorry for the confusion.

I'm updating the blog entry as well - it didn't get all the content that this 2+2 post got, which is also less content than went out in my email... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Big thanks to everyone for the feedback - and good luck! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

scott8 · #10 09-09-2005, 04:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't see where the OP said that he was always going to pick 4 games (I definately could be wrong).

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to go to his website (blog) to see it. so you are DEFINITELY wrong and I hope Tech bans you because of it. There is no place for mistakes on this forum [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] .

craig

[/ QUOTE ]

You know what's funny (although may be only funny to me)?

I read your post about the 4 games yesterday, looked, didn't see anything about the 4 games, but thought I was probably missing it.

Read it again today, didn't see it, and finally was bothered enough to post.

And now I will be banned [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Had a good run.

-SC