PLO8 Hand Analysis

Mendacious · #1 08-23-2005, 09:24 AM

Help me out with my play on this hand.

My thoughts:

On the flop I have top two and position, when several limpers call $2 I raise to ten with the thought that I probably have the best hand, and I want to chase the low draws (that might not go away if I hit a nice low blank on the turn) and chase the straight draws (some of whom fold on this board because of flush draw). I expect a good flush draw will probably stay especially if they have a straight possibility, a draw to a good low or an Ace.

Stoogeone's re-raise limits elimitates the other players-- and I have my first decision, fold/call/raise?

I called because I believed I had the best hand at this point. The only hands ahead of me are AA, QQ & 99. Stoogeone is a 25 VPIP player with a total Aggression factor of around 1.2. my read on him is he fairly solid but does make bad decisions. I put him on the flush draw, possibly with the straight draw as well, and I think trips are unlikely. I call because I think I'm ahead, but even if I am, I am not a prohibitive favorite against the hands I put him on.

Turn card comes that makes the straight and he leads out. After a lot of thought, I fold. The only one of the hands I place him on that I beat is the flush draw. Nevertheless, I am HIGHLY suspicious of his pot bet there. Did I fold incorrectly on the end? At that point I have put in a third of my stack, which I hate to lose, but the alternative really is that a call commits me for the rest, and either have 4 outs to a made hand (probably less with all the limpers on the flop) and I still have to fold if another high card or heart comes on the river.

What do you think he had?

gergery · #2 08-23-2005, 01:04 PM

I’d probably have folded. Do you really think he is limp-raising with A9 or worse? If not then you are even money or crushed.

Mendacious · #3 08-23-2005, 01:42 PM

The other aspect of calling the first raise, was that I had not been at the table for that long (though I do have a lot of hands with Stooge) and I had been getting very nice cards and pushing people around-- so I thought there was a very good chance his re-raise did not necessarily indicate great strength, but was a bigstack pushing back.

gergery · #4 08-23-2005, 01:49 PM

But what can he be pushing with? He still has everyone else in the hand as well that could wake up, and if you are pushing people around then its higher than likely that you will call. So he still needs some sort of hand to make that play with.

I suppose he could have had bottom two pair with just a gutshot, or maybe top and bottom. but the way you described him those don't sound so likely.

Mendacious · #5 08-23-2005, 02:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
But what can he be pushing with?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well that is my question. He pot re-raised me on the flop--either he had trips or he was drawing-- which is pretty strange because I think a call is much better there.

Just wanted to know what others thought.

He potted the turn when the straight came-- which is a pretty big risk if he was playing trips because I can easily now have made a straight-- although I think he knows that if he checks he loses the pot.

I'm leaning towards he had trip 9s, but I don't have enough to raise him back off that hand, so I have to fold.

Jorge10 · #6 08-23-2005, 03:12 PM

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But what can he be pushing with?

[/ QUOTE ]

Its really simple, what can he be pushing with, only 5 hands, A/A, Q/Q, 9/9, A/Q, Some sort of monster heart straight draw. Out of those 5 hands you are in terrible shape against 4 and tied with the worst one. This is a very easy fold on the flop.

Ribbo · #7 08-23-2005, 03:29 PM

On that flop there are only 2 cards in the deck you want to hit, both aces. You play AKQ2 to get flops with a low draw and top pair, or something like JT5. You don't play AKQ2 for the AQ9 flops with 2 to a flush up. That's where all the problems arose when you didn't realise this.

gergery · #8 08-23-2005, 03:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But what can he be pushing with?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well that is my question. He pot re-raised me on the flop--either he had trips or he was drawing-- which is pretty strange because I think a call is much better there.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has something like TJK with the J suited in hearts then raising might be better. If he is up vs. just 1 opponent then he is never in trouble, but up vs. 2 opponents when the second one takes some outs he can be in trouble. Particularly since he could very well put you on hearts to be betting.

Mendacious · #9 08-23-2005, 03:47 PM

...so you think my raise was bad on the flop, or just that I should've folded when I got re-raised?

Jorge10 · #10 08-23-2005, 03:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
...so you think my raise was bad on the flop, or just that I should've folded when I got re-raised?

[/ QUOTE ]

The raise while its ok a lot of times, in this case I dont know a lot callers and a lot of action, also it wasnt a pot raise no? If you are going to try and pick up the pot, then make the biggest raise possible, if your not willing to do that, then just fold, you didnt have much in that flop, when 4 people call in that spot, with that flop, you can be sure every draw possible is out there, so unless someone reraises you, then more than 1 will call, and your two pair is not looking so great. Also if they reraise like they did, you are in deep trouble as well, so the raise was bad as well.