AK Vs Flush board.

[Shillx]

SB and BB together are almost 2:1 not to have any hearts.

Huh? It is 3:2 that there is a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] out there if they have random cards. In reality it will be > 60% that a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is out there. Notice that it is correct for them to check and call on 4th without the Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (assuming that they have a flush).

[Jingleheimer]

Yeah you're right- 63:37 one of them will have a heart. I goofed and said 37:63. My bad.

[POKhER]

Aimed at no one - So quoting myself.

yeh the turn play is what i question, i folded the river as i figure he was playing the board... but any heart beats me anyhow(2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on board).

Anyhow, the turn play was a tough spot... i thought about free SD but these guys had been folding the turn alot and i seemed to have fair bit of respect at the table for taking down few pots.

Anyhow unfortunatly they didnt fold and i folded to his donk bet on river.

How did you figure the chances they held flush? im sure i calcualted it whilst playing but my brains gone to mush and its late. time to log off.

[Shillx]

There are 46 unseen cards. 37 of them are not [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]'s.

P(no heart) = 37*36*35*34 / 46*45*44*43 = .404 = ~ 40%

It is correct to use the hypergeometric distribution in this finite population of 52 cards to calculate the probabilites. Assuming BB's folded hand on the turn contained no hearts we have a total unseen population of 43 cards (N=52-5-2-2=43) of which there are 9 (X=13-5=9) unseen hearts. Villian had 2 chances (n=2) to catch 1 or 2 hearts (x=0,1,or 2) preflop so the probability he holds:

0 heart = 62.1%
1 heart = 33.9%
2 hearts = 4.0%.