Instincts vs Probability - Part 2

[oreogod]

the correct answer to your title is both.

I also hate money too. Also your outs are probably worth about 6ish...little less. 2 outs to ducks, 1.5 at the most for A's (probably less by a margin or so), 1.5 for da flush, 1 at the most for your bd str8 = 6 outs but I like an estimate of 5 actually. Either way, 5 or 6, u should call the flop.

[SeaEagle]

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At this point I'd been playing for between 2 and 3 hours and was sort of "in the zone" and his bet felt suspicious. Is that enough of a read to make this play and call the river raise? Or, is this a super-fish move?

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No offense, but I don't think being "in the zone" and thinking a bet into 4 opponents is "suspicious" constitutes a read online.

If MP2 was betting every time it was checked to him and/or MP2 was laying down a lot of hands to check-raises or river bets, then I would say you have a read.

I think you could find a better spot to bluff at a hand. The pot is so small that when you decide to raise the turn, you're committing 3 BBs to win 5BBs. I can't believe you'll win this pot anywhere near the 1 in 3 required to make a profit.

I also think you're reading a lot into the time he took to respond. It's hard to figure out what you might have on the turn. It didn't complete any draws and I would have expected you to raise the flop if you had T9 (the only plausible 2-pair hand). I think most people are going to take a few seconds to replay the betting sequence and try to figure out why you are check-raising here.

[oreogod]

I love when the inexperience talk about there being no "zone"...seriously, when you're in THE "zone"...ppl mind as well be playing their cards face up.

No "zone"...HA!

[W. Deranged]

I think you did an excellent job recognizing that your hand was worth proceeding with on the flop.

Against 6 players, trying to bully your way into a pot here is simply not going to work all that often. A flop check-raise will get called too often, often by multiple players, and put you in a bad spot on the turn.

Here is a case you just need to play very straightforward poker, recognizing you have positive expectation, and also recognizing that you probably can't "create" more value through fancy plays:

Check-call the flop. Check-fold the turn unimproved.

A turn check-raise is a nice option is you hit your hand on the turn, namely make two pair or trips. Please don't check-raise the turn when you pick up your draw, because paying multiple double bets to see a nut draw is bad poker if you don't have a clear reason to think (read: clear, numbers/pattern based read, not a feeling) villain will fold.

[molawn2mo]

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I give it a (generous maybe) 7 outs and call.

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I wouldn't give it more than 6, I think it's worth less than 6.

Fold the turn.
Fold the river.
Both easy.
The time it takes for a player to make a bet isn't very important. He could be masturbating or trying to get you to call.

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fyp... this is atually how i mis-read your reply.

[Nick Royale]

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1 at the most for your bd str8

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I would give the bdsd about 0.1 outs. Since I'm not planning to go to the river even if I hit the gut shot (unless I hit 5/3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] of course) it's almost useless. Add to that when you hit your straight there's four card on the board to a straight and you're holding the low end. You'll split to any ace and lose to any 5/3.

I would count the A outs as alittle less than 2. The Bdfd isn't worth as much as if you we're holding 2 of a suit. The 2 outs are pretty clean This makes me want to discount the outs to 5, not more.

[Nick Royale]

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Please don't check-raise the turn when you pick up your draw, because paying multiple double bets to see a nut draw is bad poker

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At 2/4 I agree. Do you think this changes when moving up in limits?

[SeaEagle]

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I would count the A outs as alittle less than 2.

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Why is everybody discounting the A outs so much? I would think an A is almost as good as another 2 here.

[W. Deranged]

A semi-bluff play like this will start to work eventually. In fact, it might work at 2/4 against the right player.

The problem is that players way overuse turn semi-bluffs. Maybe back in the early days of 2+2 turn semi-bluffing was sort of an exotic concept, but everyone knows the word now and everyone is afraid of it, and they just don't work all that often.

I'd probably save that move for mid/high limits, and preferably in live games where you can get more precise reads on your opponents.

[W. Deranged]

Agreed. Discounting the A outs to any more than 2.5 is totally unnecessary (and in fact bad, because undervaluing your hand could lead to an incorrect play).