Instincts vs Probability

[toby]

Very first hand on the table.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero (poster) 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, Hero calls.
<font color="blue"> Capping is either a maniac with a weak hand, or someone with AA. Usually the later given how passive many games are. </font>

Flop: (14.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, MP1 folds, Hero calls.
<font color="blue"> Still sounds like AA, can it be? How about QQ or JJ or the last two kings?</font>

Turn: (9.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.
<font color="blue"> Don't like it but am calling down. </font>

River: (11.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13.25 BB


Does anyone consider folding at any point here?

[shant]

You slowed down too early. I'm 3-betting the flop.

[Paxosmotic]

You have to call this down against an unknown if only to see what he has. This is why you at least observe an orbit before sitting, folks. He could have AA, he could have 83o, or he could be going for a quick strike against the new guy with nothing. No way you can fold this hand.

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone consider folding at any point here?

[/ QUOTE ]

no.

-SmileyEH

[Jake (The Snake)]

3-bet the flop and call down a cap.

Probability wins.

[toby]

Do you really just sit there for a full orbit before posting?

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you really just sit there for a full orbit before posting?

[/ QUOTE ]

Awesome.

-SmileyEH

[Paxosmotic]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you really just sit there for a full orbit before posting?

[/ QUOTE ]
El Oh El.

No, you don't sit, you just watch. Don't just go charging in, and if you do, at least have a shirt on that says "I HAVE MONEY!"

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]
You slowed down too early. I'm 3-betting the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you really just sit there for a full orbit before posting?

[/ QUOTE ]

Awesome.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

Priceless.