AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max

[chaz64]

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Why not? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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Question 2. OK: for those above and anyone (everyone?) else who answered bet - that is what I did. Here is the continuation. Your next action?

River: (7.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP 3-bets</font>, Hero...

Grunch before reading anyone else's anwsers. You have 15 seconds to decide.

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I think I cap it, because 2 pair or a lower set is much more likely than a straight.

[crownjules]

87, Q8 and KQ are the only hands to fear, and you have no evidence suggesting they are live. If you check and it checks through, you win the pot that is 2 BBs smaller than it should have been. If you bet and someone does have the aforementioned hands, you probably lose 1 BB (folding if it's 2 back to you).

Bet/call. Fold if it's 2 back to you.

EDIT: After reading down through the post...

I know this is 6-max, but 2 players are suddenly raising you on the river which makes several straights. There's a lot of expectation of two pair or a set more often than the straight. Well I would expect to see TT and 99 raising before the river, so that leaves only JJ which we'd probably see a raise from PF, but not always if the player is passive. Along those same lines, I'd expect any two pair made before the river to raise us (no one is going to credit you for a set of aces). AJ would probably have raised the flop.

With the action I'm seeing and no reads, I think we're beat. Donks will play KQ like this seeing that they only need one card to straight. Q8 and 87 are more of a stretch, but definitely playable especially with diamonds.

[Nfinity]

First off, let me start off by saying that the reason you post a hand is because you want an unbiased, no- result oriented POV. Don't ask people if they change their answers after seeing some results. You cheat yourself.

People do crazy things at 1/2. People do crazy things at 6-max. It looks like your beat here without reads.

:shrug: So be it. This is a fairly decent pot and I don't think you have to win it that many times to break even. 6-maxers are notorious for bluffing scary rivers, slowplaying to the river and just generally playing their hand like they have the nutz when they don't. I'd be more apt to fold to the ominous diamond than the J. At least then a hand like 23 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] beats me. I call without reads.

And I wouldn't Cap, and the reason is this. The few times that BB is on a Bluff, you might scare him away by capping it when he would have called 1 bet. Your also behind a lot in this situation and the extra bet saved helps when BB decides to just call as well.

[Sir Bruce]

grunch...

Bet the river. Are you that scared of KQ or Q8 in this situation? They've been calling you down this whole way. If you check and someone bets, you HAVE to call, making the obvious argument for leading out.

The more interesting question is how to handle a raise to your bet. I think you'd probably have to call for one bet, because it's much more likely someone picked up two-pair or a lower set than the straight. In fact, if BB raised and MP called, I'd probably re-raise for value.

[Sir Bruce]

hehe ... I was right about the more interesting question.

I think you have to cap this. They'll both show you two-pair or a smaller set way too often to pass this up. I know KQ is the sort of hand donks would take this flop all the way to the river, but they'll also take any pair all the way to the river as well, especially in 6-max. The chances of BOTH villains being ahead of you is very low, and neither is going to fold to your cap, which adds substantially to the value you get from capping.

[deception5]

I think the only question here is cap or call...

[aron]

Ok, Grunching.

Can't find even the slightest reason not to bet this river. 78 or KQ are not very likely.

-aron

[MrWookie47]

I haven't read your post. When people title a post "Bet this river?" the answer is yes between 80 and 90% of the time. When I see you have top set, it had better be a 4flush, 4str8 board in a field of 5 villains, and it's checked to you on the button. I say bet. Now I'll read your post.

Edit: Well, I 1-upped your request to grunch, and upon reading your hand, the answer is yes. Please bet, for the love of all that is good in the world, especially the kittens.

[Rev. Good Will]

is this a trick question?

[groo]

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Please Grunch it - Don't cheat yourself.

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GRUNCHING

I think you have to bet the river here unless you read one of these two as rocks (and how many of those do you find playing 6-max?) They are either bad players, on 2-pair or on draws. The draws are very probably flush draws. On the straight draws, they're not likely calling with KQ or K8 since the overcard limits their high card value and why would they call the flop with 78? I think you win this far more often than not, continue aggressive line and bet.