15-30 flop decision

[Michael Davis]

My first hand in the game. Mike l. is under the gun and limps. Two more limps and the cutoff raises. I have QhQc in the BB and threebet. All call and the preflop raiser caps.

Flop 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I check, mike l. bets, one caller, preflop raiser raises, I...

Also I think mike's supposed mania will get overblown in this thread, since he doesn't play like a maniac when I'm in the pot, at least not once I enter it.

-Michael

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
My first hand in the game. Mike l. is under the gun and limps. Two more limps and the cutoff raises. I have QhQc in the BB and threebet. All call and the preflop raiser caps.

Flop 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I check, mike l. bets, one caller, preflop raiser raises, I...

Also I think mike's supposed mania will get overblown in this thread, since he doesn't play like a maniac when I'm in the pot, at least not once I enter it.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

Wish I knew more about the button limper. If you were experienced looking at players other than those you see on a CRT or LCD you wouldn't even need to play a hand to tell if he was likely insane aggro, a tight old man or an average LA lunatic.

Anyway, I'd lead at the flop. For all mike and the other limpers know, your three bet out of the blinds is stronger than the button's initial raise and cap (since many caps with position seem to be "what the heck" caps). Now a raise or even call from mike and the button might tell you more about their strength.

Given you didn't lead, you might want to consider folding. The combination of mike's bet, the limpers call, and the button raise strongly indicate you are up against a draw or two, a probable overpair, and possibly a big hand by mike l. or even the limper. Although the pot is big, there's a long way to go, and this vulnerable overpair hand screems "reverse implied odds" i.e., you are unlikely to profit from substantial turn and river action. If you had the queen of diamonds, you would have a much better play. That said, I'd have trouble finding the fold at the table and perhaps the forum will think I'm nuts to even bring it up.

Let's say you play. Just calling doesn't necessarily slow down the action since mike or the limper can reraise profitably on basic draws, and three betting sort of gives your hand away as an overpair. You don't want to be marked with an overpair when the board is this scary. If I couldn't sensibly fold, I'd go with the call and see what happens.

~ Rick

[andyfox]

What button?

"You don't want to be marked with an overpair when the board is this scary."

Could you elaborate on this Rick? Thanks.

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
What button?

"You don't want to be marked with an overpair when the board is this scary."

Could you elaborate on this Rick? Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meant cutoff, not button. I'll be brief because I just spent too much time rewriting my complaint about the line that changed in the director's cut of Das Boot in the OOT "Best Submarine Movie" thread. I think you've heard it before but it's worth repeating [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

Anyway, it's possible based on the action for the cutoff, limper, and mike l to be on big draws or pair/draw combos but if lmd check-reraises here he is marking himself with an overpair. A lead bet or call of the checkraise combined with the other action would make it seem possible lmd has big overcards with a draw, a hand that can take far more heat. By check reraising three opponents (including one tough one) and a small-coordinated board that can't help the overpair his opponents can easily put the screws to him later in the hand. And with mike l. in the pot you know they will [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

~ Rick

[andyfox]

Aren't the other men () more likely to put the screws on him if they think he has just overcards or a draw than if he has a big overpair?

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
Aren't the other men () more likely to put the screws on him if they think he has just overcards or a draw than if he has a big overpair?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm thinking of the bigger betting rounds. Overcards with the flush draw are much stronger downstream. Very few turn and river cards help the overpair.

~ Rick

[andyfox]

Here's a vote for not nuts. I too, though, would have trouble folding here though I did fold pocket queens in a very similar situation the other day. The river action told me I had made an error; that is, that I was ahead when I folded on the flop. But I'm 99.9% sure I was behind on the river. That's likely the problem with this hand; as you say, there's a long way to go.

mike never raised pre-flop despite two opportunities and now bets into a capper. Now that I think of it, I think I would find a fold, rightly or wrongly.

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's a vote for not nuts. I too, though, would have trouble folding here though I did fold pocket queens in a very similar situation the other day. The river action told me I had made an error; that is, that I was ahead when I folded on the flop. But I'm 99.9% sure I was behind on the river. That's likely the problem with this hand; as you say, there's a long way to go.

mike never raised pre-flop despite two opportunities and now bets into a capper. Now that I think of it, I think I would find a fold, rightly or wrongly.

[/ QUOTE ]

It just seems like lmd might be leading here as much as 40% of the time on the flop but it's a race to the finish and his tires are flat, he has no spare or pump, he is out of water, and crawling just won't get there first enough to end the hand plus EV.

~ Rick

[lil feller]

I think you have to 3 bet here, and I don't think its close.

I'm sure you'll get mixed responses on checking the flop. I think you could argue it either way. I'd like it more w/ AA or KK, as there are many less cards to be concerned with, and you can probably count on a bet.

Betting isn't great either, as you'll probably never face the field with a 2 cold decision, which this hand certainly needs to do on this board.

As it it turned out, the 2nd bet came from the perfect spot, and i'd be worried about waiting for the turn. Not only are there a lot of cards you really don't want to see, but the button might be waiting for one of them and won't bet if checked to on the turn.

Gotta 3 bet.

lf

I'd 3 bet to put maximal pressure on Mike I. and the caller's probable draws. If the CO has AA or KK and caps, it just sucks, but that's poker and I think you have to call down unless the board gets too scary.