Missed river value bet

thejameser · #1 12-30-2005, 11:53 AM

i think there is very thin value in a bet on the river against some opponents. the thing is you run into the "with what worse hands will they call?" scenario. A-high is not calling. so he would likely need a smaller pocket pair that is not a passively played set or straight, and i don't see AK folding this river frequently enough to show profit. he may have the Adw/broadway or some such hand with a high diamond in it like KQ, etc. but that will call the river. i think when called you are behind most every time, and otherwise they fold except for a couple combos. i could be wrong, but this is my thinking here. i think the check is fine.

jt1 · #2 12-30-2005, 12:16 PM

Ace high will call most of the time. He's gone this far and it'd be a 11 bb pot.

thejameser · #3 12-30-2005, 12:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ace high will call most of the time. He's gone this far and it'd be a 11 bb pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

if he has an Ace it is likely a diamond and i think you are overestimating the number of times he calls. so what does he think you have, a worse Ace? no, no. one thing i would like about a river bet is it would be pretty sweet to fold QQ. i still don't know if the likelihood of that scenario would swing it to be valueable. how villain views hero would be a big factor in calling with A-high, so that must be considered. i still think mostly better hands will call in a vacuum, but given how they view each other could swing it the other way.

jt1 · #4 12-30-2005, 12:29 PM

Every single better hand will call you 100% of the time so there's no point even considering that they'd fold to one extra bet.

The only way Ace high doesn't call here is if he has a very good read on hero, which he may have. (Or if it's a weak ace)

thejameser · #5 12-30-2005, 12:44 PM

i don't think Ace high calls everytime. the question is do they call enough for it to show value? i don't think you can say HELL YES so confidently. i think it is close. i also don't mind the river check and in the long run cannot see it being a big loss of value for the bets you save when you are behind and the risk of being bluffraised(which may not even be a factor, i am just throwing it out there because some people may fold to it). obviously, a good read could change some things.

thejameser · #6 12-30-2005, 12:49 PM

oh, and i forgot to add that a major reason i like a river check is not just to save a bet, but to induce a bluff out of lesser hands that would not have called a bet. i can't believe i did not mention that part.

edit to say crunchy already said this and i agree.

crunchy1 · #7 12-30-2005, 12:46 PM

If you're intent on getting to showdown - checking and calling is the correct play.

Villian is not folding a better hand enough of the time to give a bet value and he'll always call with hands that are ahead. However, given the texture of this board (4-straight/3-flush) there are many hands that are ahead that won't bet and we see showdown for free. OTOH - there are also many hands (ie. A-high) that might take a shot at the pot when checked to but, wouldn't have called a river bet.