Check/call, check/call, bet line w/JJ

[Yobz]

Villian is tight preflop (6% PFR) and pretty aggressive postflop.
I figured I'm either way behind (AK, KK, AA, QQ) or way ahead (AQ,AJ,TT, a cpl others). This isnt too draw heavy a board although overcards suck...what do you think?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

Final Pot: 9.25 BB

[cold_cash]

I think you might actually be in better shape checking and calling this river, as opposed to betting out.

I think if he calls, you're screwed, but if you check and he bets you still have a fighting (albeit small) chance at having the winner.

I just don't see much value in that river bet.

[bigmac366]

hmm...interesting line. i usually lead the flop and let villians action dictate how i play the rest of the hand. of course last time that happened he didnt raise once and flipped over AA at the river soooo....its good he didnt raise the river here, but i dont think you win this pot very often. even AA would be afraid to raise this river.

[Super Pro]

the river bet doesn't make any sense.

[Lame Amateur]

[ QUOTE ]
the river bet doesn't make any sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

[pokerkai]

Your better off check calling the river.

I dunno if i even like continuing past the flop against this sort of opponent. But that just seems too weak tight.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
I dunno if i even like continuing past the flop against this sort of opponent. But that just seems too weak tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think it is.

I mean, a 6 PFR corresponds with what 3-betting range?

We are behind to AA, KK, QQ, TT and AK.

He probably doesnt 3-bet AQ that often, IMO.

[Moozh]

It seems so common around here that people read posts without trying to think through the real logic behind the advice given.

Check call, check call, bet is becomming a popular line around here, but how many people really understand why it's used?

The check-calls are done for two main reasons, first to keep an unmade hand betting. Second, to get to showdown cheaply against a hand that you may have an advantage against. Ok, so why do we bet the river? This is to keep a worse made hand from checking behind. I emphasize made because unimproved hands are often not going to call the river, so it's only a good value bet if you're against a hand that is worse than yours, but can still call.

That is not the case here. What hands 3-bet? AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, and maaaabye AQ. On this flop, you lose to everything aside from AQ and tie with JJ. Maybe you'll be lucky and be up against an 88 or 99, but then with the river, you lose to 99 too. The ONLY hand you can beat is AQ, and there's no way AQ is calling a river bet on that board. Thus, if you want to see the showdown, check and call.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
It seems so common around here that people read posts without trying to think through the real logic behind the advice given.

Check call, check call, bet is becomming a popular line around here, but how many people really understand why it's used?

The check-calls are done for two main reasons, first to keep an unmade hand betting. Second, to get to showdown cheaply against a hand that you may have an advantage against. Ok, so why do we bet the river? This is to keep a worse made hand from checking behind. I emphasize made because unimproved hands are often not going to call the river, so it's only a good value bet if you're against a hand that is worse than yours, but can still call.

That is not the case here. What hands 3-bet? AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, and maaaabye AQ. On this flop, you lose to everything aside from AQ and tie with JJ. Maybe you'll be lucky and be up against an 88 or 99, but then with the river, you lose to 99 too. The ONLY hand you can beat is AQ, and there's no way AQ is calling a river bet on that board. Thus, if you want to see the showdown, check and call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you.

[bakku]

good stuff, drew. well written.