10-25 NL at Foxwoods

[cero_z]

Hi kids,

I witnessed this hand, which took place between one of the young guns from WSOP '04, and a very tough, regular pro in the 10-25 NL. The kid has about 7000, and seems determined to win every pot he enters, regardless of his opponents' apparent strength. So far, it's working like a charm. I am on his right, patiently waiting for him to make a move on me.

Meanwhile, he limps in EP, and the pro raises to 75 on the button. He has about 20,000. Only the kid calls.

The flop is K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]:4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]; kid checks, pro bets 100, kid calls.

Turn is the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]; kid checks, pro bets 150, kid check-raises to 550. Now the pro pauses. "Again?" he asks. "I've got a pretty good hand this time, though." Kid says nothing. Pro contemplates a little while, picking his cards up high, switching them from hand to hand. Finally, he shrugs and calls defiantly.

Can you name the pro's hand (roughly)? I could, at the time. Assume you're the kid, and you have a stone cold bluff. What cards, if any, would you bluff on the end?

Anyway, river is the 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Kid moves all-in, for about 6000. Results later.

[vector2]

I'm probably way off but I'd put the pro on KJ, J9 or 99. If I was the kid I'd obviously fire out big bluff if a club, a Q, or a T hit the river.

[JFB37]

I'll take a stab at it. The pro has some kind of a blackjack hand including either a King or the J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and another club.

Bluff cards would be an A, Q or T but it is a pretty dangerous bluff if you think the pro has a painted hand.

I don't think that the 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is such a great bluff card. What is it supposed to represent? Quad 4's? A4s is not likely because he wouldn't have gone all the way with the only possibilities left: diamonds and spades. A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] maybe, but the pro's hand might well rule that out.

I'm probably wildly wrong but am quite interested in other responses to this post.

[turnipmonster]

cero, I'm having a hard time coming up with a read for this one. most tough pros I know raise one limper on the button with any two, I certainly would in this situation with these stacks. just a fact of life that you want to play bigger pots when you have the button.

his underbet on the flop looks like he wants a call, but I am assuming he can bet a wide range of hands here. the only hand he can really profitably check is some sort of draw. even an open ender he probably bets here though, to take a card on the turn if he wants to. so the only time he checks the flop is with a really weak draw plus something else, like possibly a backdoor flush draw or something. so the flop bet to me either means nothing, or a legit hand/draw (like two pair or an open ender).

on the turn once he gets checkraised and calls he seems to have a legitimate hand and I think it is less likely he backed into a draw. also, his underbet either means he wants to play a small pot or he is trying to get the kid to "sense weakness" and raise him. once the kid raises him he would not call if he wanted a small pot, so he has a big pot hand.

I think that unless he had a great read he would reraise with the nuts. many cards kill his action and he's in a perfect position to make a stand.

other than no QTo and no flush draw, I have no idea what this guy has. certainly a set/top two is always a possibility. QQ? I don't know if he plays QQ like that, that would be weird but he could have a read. AA? definitely fits the characteristic of a "pretty good" hand, but not really a big pot hand.

anyways, I am having some trouble putting this guy on a hand. good post, interesting situation.

--turnipmonster

[vector2]

The more I think about it, the more I'm starting to lean towards A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. His bets are right in line with MPTK, backdoor flush draw. On the turn, he knows the kid is probably going to make a huge bet on the river no matter what card comes out. I think the pro probably called hoping the kid had already made a straight and waiting to bust him if he rivered a flush and the kid got cute.

[theBruiser500]

All I can think is that the pro has a hand and there's a chance he will call on the river. If the kid is bluffing on the river, I don't like it, I doubt he is though. I don't like the river bluff because very tough pro has a hand and the kid is risking 6k to win 1.5k

[schwza]

who was the kid?

[kagame]

why has noone mentioned King-paint kicker?
i really cant just assume hes turned a flush draw.
there are obviously alot of possibilities, but with the Kid playing so aggressively i wouldnt expect the Pro to be worried about running into the nuts, so why would he play a big hand slowly? Set or Two pair why wouldnt he have taken a stand on the turn, as there are alot of unpleasant river cards that actually might even hit the Kid depending.

[turnipmonster]

because K-paint checks the turn.

--turnipmonster

[turnipmonster]

[ QUOTE ]
the kid is risking 6k to win 1.5k

[/ QUOTE ]

I have kind of a rote way of thinking that this is always bad gambling (risking a lot to win a little). yet, I always hear about spirit rock doing stuff like this, so there must be some merit to it.