200/400 bellagio vs liz lieu

[skp]

[ QUOTE ]
Onto the actual hand, if it feels weak, 3 betting is waaay superior to calling IMO, there is no reason you cant have a jack here, and you're 3 bet should get her to fold some hands that you are behind.


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BK raised preflop UTG + 1. He checkcalled flop. He checkcalled turn. He donk bet the river. On teh river, there are two Jacks on board.

Liz has all the reason in the world to believe that BK ain't got Jack.

BK obviously value bet the river. Normally, I would fold to that river raise. Here, I would call just to see what's up. Stupid sounding reason I know but that's what I would do. I would not 3 bet. I simply don't see her dropping a better hand.

[mslucky]

You should not have been in the hand to begin with, however, you should not have bet the river if you played it this far. I have played many hours with Liz. She has you creamed 99% in this spot. She will just payoff with a hand like a little stonger than yours on the river. This is a horrible bet and even worse to payoff.

Good Luck,
Terri

[phish]

Pardon me for being a johnny come lately to this thread (I usually avoid reading threads with too many responses already, out of laziness) but the discussion here is really interesting.
Think the only issue outstanding on this hand is whether you should three-bet the river. I'm not adding much here, but I think it would simply be a little ridiculous to think that she would put you on a jack and play so passively that you never once showed any strength and yet, suddenly will three-bet that trips with a flush possibility on the river. I'm not saying that a reasonable person should fear the flush, but I am saying that a reasonable person would likely have shown some strength prior to the river with a J. A three-bet here would be incongrous with the entire play of the hand thus far and she ain't laying down anything that can beat you.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
You should not have been in the hand to begin with, however, you should not have bet the river if you played it this far. I have played many hours with Liz. She has you creamed 99% in this spot. She will just payoff with a hand like a little stonger than yours on the river. This is a horrible bet and even worse to payoff.

Good Luck,
Terri

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given he bet and liz, how much better/worse is a 3 bet than a call?

Barron

[phish]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You should not have been in the hand to begin with, however, you should not have bet the river if you played it this far. I have played many hours with Liz. She has you creamed 99% in this spot. She will just payoff with a hand like a little stonger than yours on the river. This is a horrible bet and even worse to payoff.

Good Luck,
Terri

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given he bet and liz, how much better/worse is a 3 bet than a call?

Barron

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A three bet here screams great strength or great weakness. The play of the hand up till now is not consistent with strength, so the more logical conclusion is weakness. Unless she wasn't thinking clearly that day, she should be calling any hand that beats his (tho she may call w/ AK also).

And I believe her raise was one of those combo value/bluff bets, where you may a small percentage of the time bluff out a slightly better hand, but a significant % of the time be betting the best hand. And people usually smart enough to make plays like that also tend to be smart/suspicious enough to guard against them.

Now of course, if her image of BK was that he's a complete timid nit who is playing way above his comfort zone, she may fold. But it's just hard to think what she could reasonable put him on that she could fold. A complete timid nit wouldn't three-bet middle pair here, and would probably be too afraid of the flush to even three-bet trip jacks.

Everyone has brain-freezes every now and then, but unless she decides to have one at that moment, it just doesn't seem like a fold is likely.

[lapoker17]

[ QUOTE ]
A three bet here screams great strength or great weakness. The play of the hand up till now is not consistent with strength, so the more logical conclusion is weakness. Unless she wasn't thinking clearly that day, she should be calling any hand that beats his (tho she may call w/ AK also).


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Phish - I play NL, but this hand is interesting...Given your quote above: In this hand - if BK had AJ, would the line he took + a river 3-bet make him the most money? Am I missing something when I think that sounds like a pretty high-level way to play AJ, or am I simply results oriented.



And all - I've played a fair amount live NL with her too - her body is pretty sick, but her head looks like it's made out of plastic.

[phish]

Most people would've shown some strength with AJ prior to river rather than risk giving free cards or missing bets. Those too timid to do so may also be too timid or lack the imagination to reraise the river for fear of the flush or some full-house.
Yes, it is possible he could have AJ. But small enough possibility that she should call his reraise.