Vatican Astronomer Debunks ID

[Lestat]

RJT-

I don't not think this is an "either/or" proposition. Whether the universe "always existed" or was started by "something", there are a myriad of possibilities that do not require a God. So I don't see how 50/50 is a realistic starting point at all.

Unless I'm misunderstanding you (again -lol), it sounds as though you are saying there is a 50/50 probability of cutting precisely to the jack of hearts. Either you will or you won't. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[RJT]

I leave the myriad of other possibilities to the 50% side that includes God as being one of these myriad. (That is why I said prime mover or whatever one wants to call it - Geez, Stat, I get this at home - my wife never listens to what I say either - lol.) Unless I am missing something you just said. It seems obvious to me stated this way as 50/50, I am just unsure because I still don't get how some atheists view things, so I don't want to assume anything.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
Do we agree that God/no God (without getting into definition of God - call it prime mover , creator, whatever) should be viewed as 50/50?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know what do you mean by this 50/50. 50/50 there's something prior to the very existence of the universe? More "fundamental" than reality itself? 50% there is a "reason" for all this craziness, 50% there isn't? I don't see how those numbers, or any numbers, could be assigned to this question in a meaningful way. That's my opinion anyway.

[chezlaw]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do we agree that God/no God (without getting into definition of God - call it prime mover , creator, whatever) should be viewed as 50/50?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know what do you mean by this 50/50. 50/50 there's something prior to the very existence of the universe? More "fundamental" than reality itself? 50% there is a "reason" for all this craziness, 50% there isn't? I don't see how those numbers, or any numbers, could be assigned to this question in a meaningful way. That's my opinion anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]
This must be wrong as I totally agree.

Sorry RJT that makes it 2:1

chez

[RJT]

That is what I am asking the atheists. I concede that 50/50 then is not a good number. But, then we must agree that no number is used, which is fine. So, when I do my analogy I will work within those parameters. That is why I asked.

[chezlaw]

[ QUOTE ]
That is what I am asking the atheists. I concede that 50/50 then is not a good number. But, then we must agree that no number is used, which is fine. So, when I do my analogy I will work within those parameters. That is why I asked.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm afraid we can't agree a number. Because I believe there is no reason to believe in god and cannot prove that god exists, I think it is literaly meaningless to talk about the probability of god's existence.

I think I recall that DS has a different view and came up with a figure of 1:10 from somewhere - Lord knows where.

chez

[DougShrapnel]

I've been busy trying to figure out SK. But as for your numbers these may help.

DS: "The probability that Jesus was resurrected is one in a quintillion. The probability that Jesus is the messiah or the son of God is one in a septillion. The probability that God listens to prayers and grants wishes from Christians but not dolphins, aliens, or Muslims is one in a novemdecillion."

As far as the number you want to use for probability that there is a god. Well you'd have to take all the separate god's that are thought about and add them together. Add in some unkown gods for good measure. If christianity is the most likely religion, it's doesn't look so good for God. It is nowhere close to 50/50. Add I belive that that is the orignal arguement between person A and person B. Actually I'm sure the original arguement was person A says 100% there is a God. Person B say it is much closer to 100% there isn't a god. After a couple years it appears that one Person A moved down to it being 50/50. Most person A's still say it's 100%.

[Lestat]

Doug is explaining the problem I had with 50/50 much better than I was. At least I don't feel so dumb now for being the only person who was aghast at 50/50. -lol

It goes back to what I asked earlier. How can a blind man be so sure there is a wall in front of him and not a pizza, or a tractor, or any other of the (almost) infinite things whih migh exist in front of him?

To answer your question, THIS is the way an atheist view things (at least I do). You have to start with one BIG assumption! And even in the very unlikely event the first assumption is right, you now have to base many MORE untold assumptions off the first one, to get down to precisely any one particular version of God and religion being correct.

Perhaps it this would be better - and I don't think I've seen this yet and would be very interested to- ...

Start from scratch. Take nothing for granted. Then show what steps you've taken to logically conclude first... Any God, Then... YOUR version of God. List them as steps.

I'm really hoping this isn't too much of an onus on you. I'm seriously interested in knowing the process or series of steps one takes to make the logical conjecture that his or her religion must be the correct one to believe, as opposed to some other religion, or none at all.

I doubt you'll do this since you won't likely get anything out of it, but perhaps aggravation from those trying to poke holes in your logic. Or even if you could PM me with a short synopsis, I'd be really interested. And please understand that I'm NOT interested in making fun of you or your logic, but genuinely understanding it. This would no doubt mean that I'd have some questions if you're up to it.

I really think this is where it would need to start. A theist giving accounting for his beliefs (even though you don't owe any explanations). It is futile to have an atheist start. That would be like you having to prove to me there is not a blow up doll in your closet right now. That couldn't get off to a good start.

[RJT]

chez,

Gee, now even you don't listen to me anymore? Et tu? I said I have no problem not assigning a number. I had thought that 50/50 god exists or not was ok. Since it is not ok with everyone that is fine. Just so no one tries to make is any other number that is fine with me. I won't talk percentages in my analogy. That is why I wanted to get this basic thing understood from the get go.

Regarding David's numbers. You might be correct although, I don't recall him talking numbers relative to God/no God. I thought his numbers only referred to Religion. But that is about the time I entered the discussion.

RJT

[RJT]

Stat,

I might need a further explanation or maybe I have to read your post later after work. I simply assumed the Universe either always existed or began. That is my basic 50/50.

RJT