fold a set on the flop.

[hhboy77]

early on at the wpt borgata main event. the blinds are 75-150 and i have about 21k

a player from early position (18k, solid) limps in and the player in the cutoff (18k, total rock) raises to 800. i feel strongly that the cutoff has either aces or kings so i call in the big blind with 77. the pot is now 2475.

the flop comes jack-7-4 rainbow. i check and the early player checks, the cutoff bets 1700 and i raise to 4500. the early player then goes all in for another 11900. the late player thinks for a while then folds. the pot is now 25075.

what's your move?

[Exitonly]

nah, he's not limping w/ JJ in EP.. more likey he has 44 or something stupid.

[schwah]

i think he probably has a set, but it is much more likely to be 444 than JJJ

[billyjex]

it doesn't involve folding. he has 44, a slowplayed big pair, enough here that I am willing to pay off JJ if need be.

[housenuts]

i don't even think i'd fold this if he showed me one of his cards and it was a J

[ansky451]

So you're considering folding here with the 2nd nuts getting ~2.3-1??? Lets just say that it is equally likely that he has 44 as he does JJ. If the pot was laying you 1.01-1 than its a call. But he doesnt have JJ as much as he has 44 here, 44 is WAY more likely which makes this a very easy call. Who knows, maybe he randomly decided to play AA this way, or 65 ( both pretty unlikely, but still small possibility).

CALL.

[flyingmoose]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't even think i'd fold this if he showed me one of his cards and it was a J

[/ QUOTE ]

[TheJackal]

As Danny Nguyen would say, "you have da nuts, you gat ta call, bah fold meh, bah fold..."

here's my take on a scottie nguyen

"nahhhh baby! you gotta go fo da money... you cant fold dat baby!"

I know Im a copycat, but couldnt help myself.

hey, maybe if it was scotty in this position, he would bribe the guy to show him a card, like he bribed another player with $5 to call his all in during that wpt event.

thats one +ev move... hmmm

[hhboy77]

i took a little while to figure the odds i was getting and did make the call figuring that the reraise could mean 44 not jj. however, it was a reluctant call for me because of the following line of thinking

i called the initial raise having a very good idea that the preflop raiser had either kk or aa (after the hand he said qq). before looking at my hand, i was looking for something that could double up against these hands and 77 certainly fit the bill.

however, the preflop limper also had this information about the pf raiser so when he reraised me on the flop he had to know that i held a set, especially on that board. because of this, it didn't make sense for him to hold 44 because that means i held an overset to him. that makes his only possible hand jj.

this is giving a lot of credit to the thinking of the other player so you have to be very confident in your reads, but i had sat at this table long enough to think this might be what was happening.

as for the logic of limping preflop with jj, it's certainly reasonable given the blind structures and stack sizes. you're not looking to make a big pot with jj unless you flop a set, so playing it for set value makes a lot of sense. i still raise with jj because raising it to 450 or 500 still means you can play for set value with a stack of 20k.

i ended up calling with 77 thinking that the limp preflop favored 44 and that he didn't limp reraise pf also leaned slightly toward 44. in the end though, it was just the pot odds that pushed me toward the call, because i had an inclination that i was beat.

if i had held 44 it would've been an easy laydown. i never thought i would say that about a set on the flop, but it is the case here.