Big stack, out of position

[locutus2002]

The payout is likely to be pretty flat from 16th to 8th.

It depends alot on villain, I estimate hero is:

45% against a tight range
48% against an average range
53% against an aggressive range

With villain having 15XBB left in a flat payout situation near the final table I will treat the range as aggressive unless I have a evidence that UTG is a tighty.


In all cases there is enough overlay to justify a push.
Obviously hero has more FE against the more aggressive ranges.

I feel strongly enough about this situation that I'd probably push if I thought it was slightly CEV-- because winning T120,000 is going to put hero in a commanding position with 7 players left at his table.

[fnurt]

No no, there are about 100 people left, I am around 10th in chips. We are just barely in the money at this point.

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
It depends alot on villain, I estimate hero is:

45% against a tight range
48% against an average range
53% against an aggressive range

[/ QUOTE ]

Where are you getting these estimations? Also what hand ranges are you using? i'll post the ranges i use for those descriptions, and then put the actual numbers.

Tight villain: 99+,AQs+,AKo : Hero is 33%
Medium villain: 88+,AJs+,AJo+ : Hero is 42%
Loose villain: 66+,ATs+,KJs+,AJo+ : Hero is 45%

[locutus2002]

OK, my bad.

So the average stack at the final table will have about T1,000,000 chips. I'm still pushing to accumulate. If MP2 folded to the initial raise I think it would be close.

[locutus2002]

wow.

I might ascribe these ranges to an UTG player on a 10 handed table with deep stacks at the beginning of a tournament with 50XBB++. But my ranges would look nothing like this late in the middle of the tournament, 8-handed with 15XBB left.

My tight range looks more like your medium range.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
Its the classic reason that if you flop top pair you wont get paid off. But if you flop top pair and get a lot of action you are probably behind. Plus you act out of position so you aren't going to be able to win this pot very often without flopping a pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a loose caller is liable to give you action if you pair up. The concern about pairing and still being in trouble is valid, but I think a pair wins it for me a lot of the time: I think UTG's range is something like AQ+ 99+ here with maybe an AJ/88 in there. And the pot odds are good enough that even playing for the immediate pot is enough.

I also have a hard time believing that if you pair you will only get another chip if someone outflopped you. A continuation bet from UTG+1 on a Q high flop is very likely with all of his raising hands, save maybe AK, and the loose guy may overcall that cont bet with 88 or raise with KQ. I agree that this spot is a little sticky but I don't think it's too tough to navigate for this price.

Everett