$60 - common situation, not sure what to do

#1 12-20-2005, 03:55 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (6 handed) converter

Hero (t3350)
MP (t1340)
CO (t3045)
Button (t815)
SB (t940)
BB (t4010)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises to t450, 4 folds, BB calls t300.

Flop: (t975) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets t300

Hero?

No real reads other than villain seems solid.

bennies · #2 12-20-2005, 03:58 PM

He is asking you if you have an overpair.

Well do ya? Do ya punk?

#3 12-20-2005, 04:07 PM

Fold. Why play a big pot with the only guy at the table who can stack you and two overcards?

johnnybeef · #4 12-20-2005, 04:07 PM

Probe bets are usually a sign of a marginal holding. I would expect him to have a flush draw, or maybe a hand like 66. How I act against this type of bet is usually dependent upon what type of player he is (i.e. does he call too much, is he a puss, is he tricky, etc.)

edit: after looking at stacks, i usually let this one go.

#5 12-20-2005, 04:09 PM

So is it a question of raising or folding? And if a raise, how much?

Oh yeah, hero has played very tight and only shown down the nuts to this point.

gumpzilla · #6 12-20-2005, 04:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So is it a question of raising or folding? And if a raise, how much?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're going to raise, make it 1300 to go or so. This will be enough to fold him if he's going to fold, most of the time, and still leaves you with ~1600 if you're wrong.

johnnybeef · #7 12-20-2005, 04:14 PM

well, you have pos, so i would likely raise just under the pot if he was weak tight. but based on the stacks, there is no reason to get involved here.

xJMPx · #8 12-20-2005, 04:22 PM

I know you don't want to tangle with another big stack, and I often play weak against them in the situation, but...

Here you have a guy that can afford to take shots at pots. He has just seen a ragged flop that is unlikely to have hit you and is only really worried about you having an overpair.

He actually has the advantage of acting first here with this flop, and there is a good chance he is just trying to exploit this.

I think I would re-raise here, if he calls/raises you are done with this hand unless the turn hits you. Even though he is the only guy that can stack you, he won't here because you missed this flop just like he probably did.

#9 12-20-2005, 04:41 PM

Well in this case, the folders got it right. Hero raised to T1000, villain went all-in. Easy fold here right? IE - we're not thinking about going for a heroic call, putting villain on a semi-bluff flush draw? (I've done this a few times when villain was on the shortstack and got it right. Naturally the poker gods still punish me and give villain the flush everytime. But at least I know I made a great call [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

My thinking is there's no way villain has the balls to risk most of his stack on a semi-bluff or a mid-pair, unless he's just too reckless. Seems like you have to put him on TT, JJ, or maybe even slowplaying KK preflop. I did tell hero to make a note on villain for a nice play with the probe bet.

gumpzilla · #10 12-20-2005, 04:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
IE - we're not thinking about going for a heroic call, putting villain on a semi-bluff flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

This would be a somewhat unusual line for such a hand. The small initial bet followed by the push over the raise looks like he was fishing for precisely the action he got, and thus is well armed to take you out. (That, of course, would also make it a great bluffing line, but I think you're going to see such a line on a bluff far more rarely than a real hand if you look him up here.)