+EV pure bluffs

[NMcNasty]

I'm starting to think that there are several +EV pure bluffs that can work vs completely unknown players. Here's a couple of ideas:

1. full ring game, party 15/30. You are in the big blind with 27 offsuit. It is folded all the way around to the small blind who completes. You should raise. If you are called and it is checked to you on the flop, you should bet it whatever it is. The basic idea here is that your opponent could be calling with anything from the SB since it only costs $5 more with the 15/30 blind structure, and if your opponent had a hand that would call more than 75% of flops against a preflop raise they would have themselves raised already. Obviously this play only works at a full table where your opponents won't have a chance to realize that this is your strategy.

2. full ring game, party 15/30. Its folded around to either MP3, the CO, or the button who just calls. You are in the small blind with 27 offsuit and complete. The big blind checks. The flop is J66 (three players) or some other uncoordinated paired flop. You should bet. Again, this play definitely won't work multiple times against the same players, but I'm fairly sure that the first few times you do it in a poker session at a full table that its +EV. This also assumes you don't have a loose/aggressive table image.

Am I wrong in that these plays are +EV? What other +EV pure bluffs are there against unknown players?

[Reef]

I think a lot depends on how station-ish your opponents are. I would do this EVERY time against a few opponents, and NEVER versus some.

[K C]

If you're looking to act without a good read on someone, you're going to need a good feel about how typical players at the game play.

I don't play at Party so I don't have much of an idea about how tight the players play at a given level. You're going to want this to work more often then not though to consider it. A lot of players will stubbornly call a BB raise from the SB, taking it as an affront of sorts. And they may be the sort who will check and call, or check and raise on the flop.

I'd either want to have a good read on the player, where I'm pretty confident this will work, or I'd want something that would give me at least a decent chance to win the hand. With 27o I'd want to know that this is a passive player who tends to fold completed SB's to pressure.

The rule though with pure bluffs is that you need to count on fold equity as being 50%+. For that, you need a good read.

KC
kingcobrapoker.com

[Wetdog]

I think that you'd have to 1) know the SB well enough to get away with it, 2) understand that the risk is that the flop will be uncordinated and 3) that there will be a percentage of times you will get called on it and be dominated. It shouldn't be an "always" play but rather a play that will work >55% or so of the time.

[Loci]

Punish them with your checks and folds. You may win a few of these hands, but you can also lose a bit more trying to fire a second or third bullet into these people. Obviously, it depends on your opponents.
Ez

[ravanger]

if it comes down to me versus a single opponent,or even 2...i always raise..even in no limit. there is nothing like taking the blinds.raise preflop, bet on the flop. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[tek]

Isn't raising PF and just betting on the flop weak?

[flavaham]

Could I see the math that produces +EV here? I see why you could make these plays and I already do in some situations but I'd like to see this put into some sort of equation that would show positive expectation.
Not trying to be difficult but...
-g

[PokerFink]

One of my favorite players to watch frequently runs his favorite play, "the straight bluff." He does this in the higher NL Stars games.

He picks the most passive player or two at the table, and when they limp on his blinds, he raises regardless of his hole cards and bets regardless of the flop, since he will be first to act.

Obviously if there are other players in the pot or a raise he doesn't do this.

I once asked him what happens if they call the flop bet. His response was "all their chips on the turn."

Think this can be +EV?

Side Note: He is very skilled at reading players and is undoubtedly a winning player.

[CORed]

If it's folded to the SB, he completes and then checks the flop, I nearly always bet. It usually means he had very little preflop and missed the flop. He will nearly always fold. Once in awhile he'll checkraise, in which case I will either fold, or call and fold to a turn bet without improvement, if I don't have much of a hand.

I wouldn't complete even a 1/3 SB with 72 off, but this isn't nearly as good a situation for bluffing with 3 players. I would bet with overcards, A high, or a pocket pair (even 2's), but I wouldn't bet with any 2. In general, flops wiht a small pair on board are good (semi-) bluffing opportunities, because there's a good chance that the flop hasn't hit anybody, but unless you're heads up, it's better to semi-bluff than pure bluff. You don't want to bet every time, so you might as well bet when your hand has some chance of winning if called.