($55) ITM push, my heart says yes but my brain says no

[bigt439]

If this is true:

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he has been fairly tight ever since it has been 5-handed

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Then this is not:

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his calling range here is probably AK-A2, KQ-K8, AA-44, QJ-Q9 (maybe im off)


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That is more likely to be his min raising range there and he is not calling a push with much of it. Hard to say precisely what the min raise means because he is more than likely doing it because of BB's stack size. There is a lot of dead money in the pot and I think your range has him in bad shape and that you have lots of FE. I push.

[yvesaint]

i think the fact that he has me covered 2x and we are in the ITM opens up his calling range a lot

not to mention i have been pushing a ton of hands since then

but you can probably knock his range down to AK-A5, KQ-KT, AA-55 i guess

[xJMPx]

I'll just add this, and you can take if for what it's worth. If he calls you, there is not a range that would make it +$EV for you. Ie., if you assume he will call you with any two, your best case 0 EV.

I'll leave it up to someone of figure out how often he has to fold to make this a push.

Edit: I just played around with SNGPT a little more, and ran some cases where Hero is open pushing into the big stack here. Even if the big stack is only calling with TT+,AQs+,AKo it is only +0.7% EV.

So, if we consider that if he calls it always -EV and that if were were open pushing he has to be real tight here to make it acceptably +EV we can conclude, with some degree of confidence, that this is a fold.

This is a real 'loose' analysis, but I think it works alright...thoughts?

[Jack Fate]

Devin, it was a good analysis for why not to push. But that doesn't mean you have to fold! This is a call.

[lastchance]

Huh?

<--- insta-shoves, and does not believe it is close.