Tricky River Situation - Or Maybe Not

Catt · #1 11-09-2005, 05:33 AM

MP is bad. His stats are like 45/1/0.75/35 over 200 datamined hands. After four orbits or so I can confirm that his postflop play is bad, not surprisingly. He chases with horrible odds and calls down with weak hands. He has bet a speculative hand on the river once on sort of a "value bluff,", but I simply don't have enough of a post-flop read to draw any real conslusions. He is all-in on his river lead which adds to the concern -- he has been short-stacked for some time but has shown no real signs of just stacking off in the last few hands (i.e., he's seen a flop or two and folded there or on the turn).

BB is bad statwise - 47/10/0.7/ but 23 WTSD over ~100 hands, mostly mined. No great reads on his post-flop play, though I've seen him get to SD passively with a SD-able hand as opposed to getting tricky or aggressive.

What's the play on the river after MP leads with BB to act behind after checking?

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, MP calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets, BB calls, MP calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets, BB calls, MP calls.

River: (7.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP calls $19 (All-In), Hero . . .

#2 11-09-2005, 05:40 AM

I don't think you can fold a weak A here if you raise so I'd go for the overcall.

New001 · #3 11-09-2005, 05:41 AM

I like a raise here if BB can fold a weakish Ace to two bets.

admiralfluff · #4 11-09-2005, 06:33 AM

I'm guessing BB might be looser than the 100 hand sample shows, and has been running cold. That would explain his low WTSD, as he is playing all kinds of unholy trash that only a blind retard could go to SD with UI. Without a larger sample I think you should assume he is probably a normal LP, and there is no way he's folding an A on this river.

imitation · #5 11-09-2005, 07:01 AM

you could almost find a fold, because all in on this river is invariably, a 5 or diamond flush and the parlay of bb calling down, doesn't look good does it. 9-1 bad but hmm to close to know so I just call and assume this is one of those areas of internet poker that it is impossible to get better at.

New001 · #6 11-09-2005, 07:08 AM

There are only 2 diamonds on the board. I can't see folding really being close to calling or raising.

imitation · #7 11-09-2005, 07:45 AM

sorry misread the flop as AdJhXx

Catt · #8 11-09-2005, 03:02 PM

I didn't have a great read, but I didn't think BB would fold a weak A for two cold on the river so I didn't go with a raise. I actually thought for a moment that folding was a reasonable approach because: (1) after a PFR and betting on both streets with an A on board, I think guys like this tend to give up unless they have a strong draw (like a FD); (2) MP doesn't seem to be the sort of player that would ck-cl down and then lead the river for value to keep it from being checked through; and (3) unless BB is on a FD I believe he is showing down, and that means most likely an A, a J, or possibly a PP. The fact that MP is getting all in for one bet on the river makes his bet a lot less believable (in the sense that his bet is a vlaue bet on the best hand). Anyway, I called, MP showed 65o (with one heart) and BB showed A7o, so I was in third place.

Results aside, I gather no one thinks folding is a serious option given the size of the pot, the nature of the board, and the action to the river?