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#21
09-10-2005, 01:26 PM
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Re: I Cap PF 6-ways & check through flop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] everyone in this thread is on crack. youre giving up too much value checking here. [/ QUOTE ] you aren't giving up any value really. you're just giving up a nice chunk of a 24 SB pot [/ QUOTE ] I don't think this concept applies in this situation if you assume (as I am) that opponents will call getting 25+:1. Let's say someone has a PP and therefore a 2-outer. He'll call the flop but fold the turn UI. Since he'll hit on the turn 2/45 times, or approximately 4.4% of the time, the check costs Hero .0956 of a small bet from Villain minus 0.044 of a Hero's bet -- it doesn't cost 4.4% of the 24 SB pot (1.06 SBs) unless Villain would fold to a flop bet. Basically, I'm saying I don't think you can look at it from the standpoint of opponents' collective equity in the pot unless you first assume that they will fold incorrectly -- without that assumption, a check potentially misses out on value but doesn't give away any portion of a large pot. [/ QUOTE ] you're saying there's no difference between giving 25-1 and 25-0? [/ QUOTE ] No I'm saying that giving 25-0 is sacrificing value by not collecting bets from players with worse hands that will call, but is not "giving up" a chunk of the existing 24 SB pot. It would be conceptually giving up a chunk of the pot if a bet would have folded a hand that has a live draw. If Villain has 10% equity but would have folded to a bet, I've conceptually "given up" 2.4 SBs (or my share of that equity if the hand is multiway) by failing to bet; if the same Villain would have called a bet, I've given up 0.8 of a bet but haven't "given up" any of the existing pot. Put another way -- if Villain would fold to a bet, then by checking I've given away the equity in the existing pot that Villain would have sacrificed (actually a portion of if others remain in the pot); if Villain wouldn't fold but would instead call, then by checking I've given up my equity in the bets that would have gone into the pot (i.e., value). 
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#22
09-10-2005, 02:09 PM
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Re: I Cap PF 6-ways & check through flop
I've changed my mind about this. The main goal here is to win the pot. Getting more bets into the pot is not important. The way to maximize the chances of winning the pot is to make people fold so they have no chance to draw out. Betting out here, whether you have the best hand or not will make no one fold. Even if you had pocket Aces, the best play here is to CHECK and....
then Bet or Raise on the Turn if you can face anyone with calling two cold no matter what comes unless it is an Ace. Since the player on your left 3-bet preflop, hopefully he will be the first person to bet on the turn and you can raise him and face the whole field with two.
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#24
09-10-2005, 05:01 PM
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Re: I Cap PF 6-ways & check through flop
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i would bet.. gotta get people with outs against you to fold. Its a big pot. [/ QUOTE ] It was my inital reaction here as well Mike, but no pair, Ace, K, or PP is ever folding. Look at Cat's post for the numbers breakdown, it's quite interesting. I would still bet it here, but thats me.
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