5-10 Stud Hand on UB...Fold the River?

[Jeffage]

5-10 stud on UB (standard structure). I have (Q,Q) 7. 2 brings it in, folded to a Queen who raises. A Jack calls. I raise. Folded back to the Queen who calls. The Jack calls. Here are the boards on 4th. Suits don't matter.

ME: (Q,Q) 7x 2x
Opponent A: (x,x) Q 5
Opponent B: (x, x) J 9

A checks, B checks. I bet, both call. Here we are on 5th.

ME: (Q,Q) 7 2 3
Opponent A: (x,x) Q 5 2
Opponent B: (x,x) J 9 4

A checks, B checks. I bet. A folds. B calls. On 6th...

ME: (Q,Q) 7 2 3 4
Player B: (x,x) J 9 4 4

Not so hot. Anyway, B bets, I call. On the river, I fail to improve. He bets again. Easy fold?

Thanks,
Jeff

[TheShootah]

I think so, if he was smart he would put you on that big pair in the whole, and if he improved to anything that beat that pair, he would bet. So I would lay it down. That's just me though.

[AdamK]

Most of the time id pay him.
Looks like theres over 8BBs in the pot, there is a small chance he was on some sort of busted draw.
Plus I wouldnt want the table to think they could bully me off a big pair for one bet on the river.
Did you think about raising on 6th?
3-handed i would; not so sure about the value of this heads up though, epsecially since your hand is dead-ish.

[patrick dicaprio]

usually i would pay off here. but a better play i think is to arsie sixth street. i would often make this play against weak players. if you are planning to call a bet on the river and you think a raise will make your opponent check the river the you lose the same amount as you would have if you just called. but if you improve you can bet and if you are good you make a bet. if you raise and get reraised or if you are called and bet into on the river and you dont improve at least you can feel confident against most players that you are no good.

pat

[studplaya]

not necessarily an easy fold; info on your opponent is key as well as Jacks, etc. he seems to have in his hand. often times you are looking at Jacks up here, but if your opp. is capable of betting and calling with smaller pocket pairs and jack kickers or a 3 flush and no pair, then betting a naked pair, and pot odds are a HUGE key in deciding if you should call in such situations; in general I would say your assessment/ primary read of jacks up would be correct though...good luck

[SevenStuda]

I don't think you can go wrong either way.(call or fold)

-Dimitri

[Jeffage]

I folded to his river bet. I know you are rarely supposed to lay down on the river in a stud pot like this, but I was nearly 100 percent I was beaten. I don't know if I like raising 6th street. If the player has me marked for a big pair in the hole, he may just make it 3 bets with something like Jacks up, not allowing me a chance to catch up if I choose to fold.

Thanks,
Jeff

[Andy B]

I don't think your average $5/10 player is going to put you on anything. It's a rare customer who is going to three-bet on sixth street with Jacks-up. I think raising sixth street is a good play, although I wouldn't necessarily do it myself. A lot of folks will check Jacks-up on the river, so it doesn't necessarily cost you the same as calling it down.

I think you have to call on the end. There's a bunch of money out there, and he could easily be bluffing. He might have been on a straight draw. I hate it when people say that suits don't matter. Was it remotely possible that he was on a flush draw? Anyway, if you pay it off, and it's a mistake, it's a pretty small mistake. If you fold and it's a mistake, it's a very large mistake. I pay it off every time, unless I am very sure of my customer. Sometimes, I even pay it off when I am sure of my customer, as my customers surprise me once in a while. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[AdamK]

I think Dimitri is correct in saying that you cant be wrong in either calling or folding.
ie.it’s close; if you’re 90% sure you’re beat then pot odds justify a call, and folding won’t cost you
much either.
However, I play a lot of heads-up stud and used to have a policy of always paying off on the
river in this situation.
A couple of days ago I played a regular customer which I had mental notes on saying “never bluffs on the river.”
I bet Aces all the way til check-folding on 7th ( and was quite happy in doing so).
Did the same thing a few hands later...
About 2 hours later I’d gone from being $600 up to about level.
It was the next day before I realised this guy had turned from being someone who never bluffed on 7th,
to someone who was probably robbing me at any opportunity.

It was a bad day, I played like a wuss and am reverting back to my old policy of always paying off.
I know playing in ring games is much different - just something to think about.

In a ring game, if he makes it 3 bets on 6th you call and can happily fold unimproved on the river.

To summarise, if you keep folding unimproved big pairs on the river, it may become a mathematical disaster.
Do it once, but be careful in folding more times than pot odds justify.