How much of an edge woud the best players fold early? - Page 7

cornell2005 · #61 09-28-2004, 06:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
IF you were very short-stacked and very near the cutoff line for money, would you fold As? Have you ever? I can only assume that a player of professional caliber does not, while an amateur like myself probably should. What do you think?

[/ QUOTE ]

ew no. even a horrible player can win a big hand with AA by pushing all in preflop.

nice job whipping this forum into shape paul. too bad for you that the forum you are most interested in is also the most inexperienced poker wise.

jwvdcw · #62 09-28-2004, 09:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
TONS of big name players busted out on day 1 of the WSOP this year (well, day 1 and 2, because of the split field, but you know what I mean). And if you knowingly pass up a 60:40 opportunity, you're not a top player.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah that the thing you also must remember...the bigger the tourney, the better the players playing in it, the less you should pass up small favorable edges. Now obviously the level of play has been diluted a bit at the WSOP, but its still a tourney with tons of great players in it.

illguitar · #63 10-02-2004, 01:55 AM

I'm not sure if I have the discipline to throw away aces preflop if I needed to. But do you disagree that there are times that make it profitable to do so? I will tell you one thing for sure...if I made it to the WSOP through satellite and happened to be lucky enough to last long enough to be near the money. I would throw away aces in a heartbeat to make the moneyline. I'm not saying that this is a wainning play. It isn't, but for a player who is in over his head, it could be for the short term. Whereas it would be foolish for this to be done at any other time. Do you see my reasoning?

Paul Phillips · #64 10-02-2004, 02:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I would throw away aces in a heartbeat to make the moneyline.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you.

[ QUOTE ]
but for a player who is in over his head, it could be for the short term.

[/ QUOTE ]

As a player who is in over his head, wouldn't you relish the opportunity to make the exact same play that phil ivey or doyle brunson or whoever you think is best would make? Why would you want to intentionally make the wrong play? Doesn't being in over your head present enough of a challenge?

[ QUOTE ]
Whereas it would be foolish for this to be done at any other time. Do you see my reasoning?

[/ QUOTE ]

Whether or not it is your reasoning, the effect is to make it far easier for everyone else to win a lot of money. It's rare to see this kind of altruism in the tournament poker world and I think you should be applauded for it.

kmvenne · #65 10-02-2004, 03:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
As a player who is in over his head, wouldn't you relish the opportunity to make the exact same play that phil ivey or doyle brunson or whoever you think is best would make? Why would you want to intentionally make the wrong play? Doesn't being in over your head present enough of a challenge?

[/ QUOTE ]

What if his favorite player is one that is already over his head, i.e. Phil Hellmuth?

illguitar · #66 10-02-2004, 01:17 PM

Paul...I love it. I understand that it is the wrong play for someone that plays many tournaments, or that has a n advantage over the field. Seriously though, I must be wrong here as everyone disagrees with me. However, I feel that the EV of my tournament goes up exponentially by being altruistic in this case. I have never played in a B & M tournament. I would be pretty intimidated for awhile I think. I would also feel great about creeping into the money if I was very shortstacked. I still feel that this would be the correct move for me, someone that is not constantly playing tournaments. Is it possible that this is ALWAYS the worng play? Let me know. Thanks.

B Mando · #67 10-02-2004, 01:34 PM

First hand of WSOP main event...You get dealt AA on the button, guy UTG goes all in...everyone folds to you.

If you are a top poker player, or even if you feel you are better then everyone at your table why would you call this? You are risking your entire tournment life on one hand where the UTG wahoo could hit his set or whatever...If you feel you could out play everyone and double up by the end of the day anyway why risk it all on one hand? It makes no sense to me if you are going to double up throughout the day anyway when you have the nuts and other players are drawing almost dead or near dead....

If you are a marginal player, or if you are just as good or worse as everyone at the table then it is a instant call...

JoshuaD · #68 10-03-2004, 10:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
First hand of WSOP main event...You get dealt AA on the button, guy UTG goes all in...everyone folds to you.

If you are a top poker player, or even if you feel you are better then everyone at your table why would you call this? You are risking your entire tournment life on one hand where the UTG wahoo could hit his set or whatever...If you feel you could out play everyone and double up by the end of the day anyway why risk it all on one hand? It makes no sense to me if you are going to double up throughout the day anyway when you have the nuts and other players are drawing almost dead or near dead....

If you are a marginal player, or if you are just as good or worse as everyone at the table then it is a instant call...

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are the best poker player in the world you call. Where has this idea that doubling up is enough for the first day? Why not triple up?

And chances are he's got a high pocket pair, or AK, which means you've got a huge over here.

I'll take AA against 67s for all my money first hand WSOP. It's the right move, regardless of who you are.

InfernoLL · #69 10-03-2004, 12:52 PM

While taking a 35% (or whatever) chance to make your stack ten times bigger is unquestionably correct at any stage of a tournament (correct me if im wrong), if you look at the range of likely hands people would need to do this, aces don't look so good and may be only a slight equity favourite over the average. Assuming people wouldn't push with random hands (not a bad assumption), there would definitely have to be high aces and high pairs out there. Assuming no one goes in with 76s (which would make you worse off), I think the following is a reasonable estimate of what people would have in such a situation.

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 32244 16.01 164590 81.73 4542 2.26 0.167
Ks Kc 0 0.00 200590 99.61 786 0.39 0.000
Qs Qc 0 0.00 200590 99.61 786 0.39 0.000
Ad Kd 9981 4.96 186853 92.79 4542 2.26 0.056
Ah Qh 9981 4.96 186853 92.79 4542 2.26 0.056
Qd Kh 2076 1.03 198514 98.58 786 0.39 0.011
Jd Jh 47936 23.80 152654 75.81 786 0.39 0.238
Ts Tc 36242 18.00 164348 81.61 786 0.39 0.180
9d 9h 30982 15.39 169608 84.22 786 0.39 0.154
8s 8c 27392 13.60 173198 86.01 786 0.39 0.136

While the other high cards hold eachother's outs, the lower pairs start becoming favourites and AA is only 6% above average. Assuming something perfect (and then some) like this would have to happen to create this situation, would a pro fold a 16% chance to increase his stack to ten times its size?

madmisha · #70 09-21-2005, 04:06 PM

Thanks for the collection of posts, I have been reading them with great interest.

There is one aspect of the pushing small edges versus survival debate is the limited time in a tourney.

Survivalist say that the best player has a great chance of doubling there stack through good play and avoiding small edges for all you chips because they eventually with double up with less risk.
However, time is limited and the time spent trying to double up after passing up a small edge would be used by aggressive players(who either double up or go home) to build an even larger stack.