5/10 Hand (Boring Title; Interesting Hand)

[KaneKungFu123]

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Bet the river and fold to a checkraise. How much to bet on the river depends on how much you bet on the river. I would probably bet $350-400.

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Yeah, I think that jack adds enough protection to fold to a check raise on the river.

[ML4L]

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A lot of people have said villian is obviously inducing a bluff from the missed flush draw here, but i don't know, if the villian is at that level of thought then it seems strange he'd risk a free card on the turn.

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The 'king of Shania' would never check-raise a set on the turn here...? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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Lets say we take case 1. In which villian would do this with all the 2 pairs and sets and the straight. Then it's probably close, and that's the best case for us.

Case 2. He's not a very good thinking player and he's just doing a 'fun' line with a set/straight only. I think players who get fancy are much more likely to do it with only a set rather than two pair.

Case 3. He's a somewhat decent thinking yet a player who thinks 45 bottom two pair is not a hand to get fancy with as he thinks it's strength in this situation is a lot worse than a set.

I think a lot of different player types match this play and we are only hitting value against one of them.

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Yeah, this is the issue that it all comes down to. If we assume that he is usually a 'case 1' player here, a bet is clearly in order. But, the more often that we encounter a 'case 2' or 'case 3' player, the worse a bet becomes...

Good post.

ML4L

[fsuplayer]

yeah, add me to the list who changed their mind on ML4L's great post. the river does see to be a bet and fold to a raise. and i like 2/3 pot.

nice post mike.

(and yeah, yeti, you were right [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img])

[Matt Flynn]

Hi Mike,

on the flop: this is a situation point - and to a lesser extent a style point. both calling and raising can maximize earn. e.g., against the weak take-a-shotters that sometimes populate late-night PP 5-10, i like to raise there. that way if i hit the flush they are much more likely to pay me off for two streets / all in. also, i often make a 2/3 pot bet if the turn is a blank and they check. but that bet works better against more experienced players. also, the weaker players get all excited when they hit a big hand and shut down to a raise then go for a checkraise right when they should fire.

against truly weak opponents who call way too much and too big, i call. might as well make the hand and shoot them in the nest.

against a typical better but not good 5-10 player, i like calling. when they check - which they do too often from out of position - you take the pot away. however it requires some heart as that is not the time for a half-pot bet.

against better competition i also like calling. then you've got him or her guessing, and there are a ton of scare cards. this works both if you have heart and if you don't.

all of these are probabilities: each has a different weighting vector with no coefficient greater than about 0.85 except against really weak players.



the river: hell yes i am betting that river. it's extraction time. think about how often you will get paid off vs how often you will lose or get blown off the hand by a bluff check-raise. if opponent is primed to go nuts, you might check. but you have a betting hand. trick is to bet enough to make it look real but maybe a bluff. you want to get paid but not get check-raised. also, you want to minimize losses when he's check-raising you with the goods. $325 is a nice number there, $275 if they need a little more encouragement. if they'll pay you off often bet more.

matt

[FoxwoodsFiend]

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Which would tend to mean that a value bet of hero's two-pair is in order, right? I don't get why so many people are in favor of the river check, not to mention the flop call.

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I don't think the flop call is atrocious-I'm trying to keep the pot small with top pair crap kicker and I'll risk an overcard coming that most likely won't hit my opponent.
I agree though that the river check is suspect. As AZK noted, few players would check-raise the turn and then check-raise the river with the nuts, so the only thing that you could really worry about on the river if you bet is a check-call by a set that's trying to slow down after the turn call by hero. I say you're facing two-pair based on the action more often than anything else, and I would bet the river.

[theBruiser500]

if ml4ls opponent here has a big hand a set or a straight or whatever or good two pair or whatever maybe the best play is checking it, but it takes heart to check a big hand on the river. he'd check one pair, maybe two pair but as the hand gets stronger it is harder for a person to check it on the river . i think this makes all of this guys strong hands less likely

[Usagi_yo]

Everybody here respects your play, so I have to ask since I disagree with betting -- particularly a good amount, what to you put ML4's opponant on?

I'm thinking he's really weak and that a value type bet on the end will have to be relatively small, and may trigger a move, while a 2/3 size bet will pretty well much insure you against a move on the end, but no call either. Thus I see the risk / reward for such a bet rather slim.

[Spladle Master]

Say you reraise on the turn to $700.

What do you think villain does with 44/55 here?

[fsuplayer]

he doesnt fold, if thats what you mean.

[Spladle Master]

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he doesnt fold, if thats what you mean.

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Actually, I was just curious.