checking to see if running bad

[BIGRED]

I was wondering if there is a way to verify if I'm running bad by looking at something in PT and it turns out somebody here already did some analysis on how to check this.

Here is the link to that analysis.

post by krishanleong on running bad

He proposes to look at the stats in the Misc Tab to see how your final hands are distributed and what percentage of the times you are winning with these hands.

And here is my Misc Tab



It seems my distribution of hands is way out of line with the standard that krishanleong found in his research. For example, krishan found three of a kind makes up 14.5% of total hands in his database, but I have only 4.06%. Can this be right, or am I not looking at my misc tab correctly?

Also, if you want to see my other stats for these hands here is the link to that thread.

my stats

[Petro]

Krishanleong's data was for hands that were not folded. Check the box in the upper right hand corner and then compare.

[krishanleong]

Check the show only hands that were not folded button. Then repost and I will analyse.

Krishan

[BIGRED]

[ QUOTE ]
Check the show only hands that were not folded button. Then repost and I will analyse.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks... It still seems off, but here it is.



Just to mention again, there is a link to my other stats on the original post if you want to reference back to it.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check the show only hands that were not folded button. Then repost and I will analyse.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks... It still seems off, but here it is.



Just to mention again, there is a link to my other stats on the original post if you want to reference back to it.

[/ QUOTE ]

1 pair W$SD is great
2 pair W$SD is great
trips W$SD is fine
straight + flush + full all winning above 80%. You should have 1 premium every 200 hundred hands. You didn't specify how many hands this was but premiums look good too.

Conclusion, you are running well.

Krishan

[BIGRED]

I'm looking at your post, "How to tell if you are running good or bad (Revised v2)", and the part that says,

"One pair, two pair, three of a kind, straights, flushes and full houses comprise over 93% of money earned. Here is the breakdown in terms of %.

One pair ---- 21.9%
Two pair ---- 24.7%
Three ------- 14.5%
Straight ---- 12.0%
Flush ------- 11.4%
Full House -- 10.7% "

Although I am winning the right % of times when taken to show down, I'm wondering if I'm getting my expected share of 3-of-a-kind and better. Based on your distribution above and the numbers in the right most column of my Misc Tab, am I not getting the expected share? And if I am not getting the right amounts for these hands, then am I not going to show down as often as I would have, thus winning less in total?

Again, my Misc Tab looks like



These are from 39K hands of party's 5/10 6-max

[BIGRED]

Would someone post a screen shot of their Poker Tracker Misc Tab, preferably from Party's 5/10 6-max. If screenshot is cumbersome, typing it out is fine too. What I'm looking for is the numbers in the right most column for each kind of shown down hands. Make sure you check "Show Only Hands That Were Not Folded".

I'm trying to compare my distribution of shown down hands vs what others are getting. I started this thread after finding a post by Krishanleong which I linked in the original post.

Unless, I misunderstood him, he proposes that one indicator of running bad is if you are not winning your fair share with the premium hands. It seems, percentage wise, I'm winning the right amount of times when taken to showdown, but my question to Krishanleong, (which I'm still waiting for a reply from him) is that it seems I am not getting the kind of distribution he showed in his original post. Thus not going to show down as often.

So, I was wondering what some of you other guys are showing for your Misc Tab.

[sweetjazz]

[ QUOTE ]
You should have 1 premium every 200 hundred hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not sure this is a good ballpark estimate. (I know the actual number would be slightly different for each premium hand.)

After 27,666 hands of 10/20 (some full some 6 max), I have had 187 straights, 200 flushes, and 206 full houses. Either I'm running really really really good or premiums should be coming a bit more frequently. (You predict 138 of each.)

Looking just at 6max hands (so there is some overlap with the above numbers), I have played a total of 39,924 hands at 4 different limits (1/2, 5/10, 10/20, 15/30). (But 75% of the hands are from 5/10 and 10/20.) I have had 342 straights, 300 flushes, and 292 full houses. (You predict just under 200 of each.)

I know it's possible to run really good over large samples of hands, but I wonder if the data you used was right and/or your method was reliable.

I would generally say that I am pretty loose in drawing to straights and flushes, meaning that if I err in estimating my implied odds it's probably a bit on the high side. So I might be continuing with a gutshot or a BD flush draw slightly more often than others. I also have a pretty high VPIP (26% at 6max over all four limits), which means I will hit a few more premiums than someone with a 22% VPIP.

So I am a bit skeptical, given my playing style and approach to the game, that I am running as good as you say I am. I wouldn't be surprised at all to learn I am running good and making more premium hands than would be expected. Just not as good as you predict I am.

(The other wierd thing is that my premium are almost all as frequent as each other as you predict, and it's very unlikely that all my premiums would occur equally as often if they were all outlying amount. Meaning it's very strange to be running with the same exceptional goodness in all three types of premiums, none running significantly better or worse than the other two -- just all three running really hot.)

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
After 27,666

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this total hands, or the total hands indicated on the misc tab? They are different.

Krishan

[sweetjazz]

You are showing down premium hands less often than me. I am showing each type down about once every 170 hands or so, whereas you're closer to once every 200-210 hands or so.

Some of this is likely running bad. But you have a low WtSD% and a high W$SD%, which suggests to me you may be making bad folds. This could include not taking gutshot draws and BD flush draws into account when deciding what to do on the flop.

So it looks like you are probably running bad, but how much of your bad results it explains is hard to say. Keep posting hands and analyzing your play. Try not to fret over the short-term results, just concentrate on making good winning plays.

Best of luck at the tables!