Minnesota -2.5

[sublime]

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The thing is, the outcome of the game actually doesn't really matter. I think Detroit is the right side, and I'll think that either way. I'm not smarter if they win, nor am I dumber if they lose. I think that Detroit +3 is profitable, and that is enough.

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[GrekeHaus]

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Now, I'll admit I don't know much about sports betting and I'm sure this post will illustrate that, but I just can't see how Minnessota is not a lock.

Minnessota was picked by many to make the playoffs this year and possibly to go deep into the playoffs. They started out the season playing terribly because of the play of Culpepper. For whatever reason, the guy could not protect the football this year.

The Vikings seem to be a much better team with Brad Johnson as QB. Brad Johnson is a guy who has always been smart and solid. The rest of the team is probably about average. But they have momentum, and they are fighting for a playoff spot.

Detroit, on the other hand, has been horrible for YEARS. Both of their QBs suck. They just fired their coach. The entire organization sucks. They can't run. They can't pass. They have no shot at the playoffs. Their players are USED TO LOSING.

So, will someone please explain to me how Detroit can possibly be a good play, let alone a LOCK?

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I can't believe that nobody has pointed out the obvious yet. The Vikings are a fraud. They're not for real. I say this as a Vikings fan who watches them every week.

They had a fluke win in NY where they failed to score an offensive touchdown and they beat 3 bad teams. Brad Johnson has done nothing good as QB since replacing Culpepper yet he recieves all the credit.

On the other hand, the Lions really suck too. It's just going to be a battle of who can suck less.

[jedinite]

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Right, but this still isn't an argument for why Detroit is a good bet. I'll be interested to read your future post if it is going to contain real analyses, but all this stuff about sports books and psychology doesn't address the fact that Minnessota just seems like a much better team right now, has good momentum, is fighting for a playoff spot, and was favored, by sports books I might add, to make the playoffs this year.

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You're right, by itself its not a reason to play a game. And yes, my picks always contain a good deal of analysis on why the picks are made - check the previous "Performify's Pigskin Picks" threads on here, or check my blog which also archives them all: www.performify.com

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Detroit can't run, can't pass, and can't stop the run.

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You're right on what you quote, but you're not looking at the whole picture. Let me give you a little more detail.

Detroit's defense is #14 overall, #25 against the run but #11 against the pass. The Detroit offense is #27 overall, #25 both rushing and passing.

The Vikes offense is #25 overall, #24 rushing and #20 passing. Finally, the Vikes are #28 overall in defense, #15 against the rush and #25 against the pass.

So just speaking on the numbers, you've got two equally bad offenses, but one offense which favors the pass over the run, and one team that is balanced run and pass.

The Vikes present a bottom four defense, decent at stopping the run (but as you pointed out, the Lions aren't doing much rushing these days anyways) but porous against the pass. In Detroit you've got a trio of top receivers and a decent vetran QB to exploit that secondary. Conversely, the Vikings are dependant upon the pass, and you've got a top 1/3rd pass defense going against them.

Detroit also turns the ball over less (and a lot less with Garcia vs Harrington at QB).

Again, more details in the picks thread when those are finished, but just wanted to point out some of the matchup that a lot of people miss when they first look at this game.

[TRBNGR]

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They had a fluke win in NY where they failed to score an offensive touchdown and they beat 3 bad teams. Brad Johnson has done nothing good as QB since replacing Culpepper yet he recieves all the credit.

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Granted they didnt score on offense in NY but I wouldn't exactly consider any of their scores to be flukes in that game. They simply owned on special teams [and made Eli look a rookie again]. Where I agree that Brad Johnson is no big deal, he hasn't been costing Minn games like Dante was in the early part of the season.