On the Bubble: What's my play with AJs in the BB vs EP min-raise?

[JayLear]

[ QUOTE ]
Empire 10k guaranteed 25+5 R+A

Level:13 Blinds (750/1500)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: jabik ( $5314 )
Seat 3: wabbby ( $26159 )
Seat 5: NoCorners ( $6873 )
Seat 7: HERO ( $9940 )
Seat 8: nooowin2 ( $8972 )
Seat 9: silverdan ( $54124 )
Seat 10: crabber60 ( $36696 )
Seat 2: DREW226 ( $15240 )
Trny:14697952 Level:13
Blinds (750/1500)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Ad Jd ]
nooowin2 folds.
silverdan raises [3000].
crabber60 folds.
jabik folds.
DREW226 folds.
wabbby folds.
NoCorners folds.
HERO ????

No reads on villain, no one at the table was particularly any good, just wishy-washy I'd say. There were 21 players left, 20 spots paid.

[/ QUOTE ]
The amount of his raise here concerns me. A minimum raise doesn't indicate to me that he's trying to buy...he wants action. I'm just calling here...not pushing. Call the raise and make your reads post-flop.

[37offsuit]

Call the raise and then play poker (or fold if you want to sneak into the money). Any indication on his hand by the minraise vs a standard raise? Or was this his standard picking up the blind raise? Had he been stealing a lot? If this is standard, I might push.

[devilsshadow]

This, I think, is trickier than it looks - no reads doesn't help... Generally, it seems most are tightening up at this stage in the tourney; and, unfortunately for you your villian might be stealing if he's decent...

I can't begin to count how many times I've stolen blinds near the bubble (even from the big stacks) with min raises from EP. Why does it work? Because NOBODY expects a min raise from 8-3os UTG - they expect AA, especially with the way I play. But, I'm not you...

This play cannot be completely analyzed without some kind of read, nor can you make a truly "correct play" without some kind of read. The reason I can steal with min raises late in MTT's is because I do in fact play monsters the same way; and, by this time in the tourney, I've got respect for any amount I throw down.

In your situation, I either push preflop or fold - no in between - I think, most likely, if the table is as bad as you say it is - your villian has 10-10 or worse. Even a bad player can see how tight the table is, and I'd be more leary of a limp in from EP than a min raise.

I disagree with the whole idea that you have no fold equity; on the contrary I think you have plenty, especially if you've been playing tight along with the rest.

What I do agree with, especially due to the lack of info, is the idea that you should base your decision on your desire for 1. Doubling up 2. Making the money 3. Winning 1st ---

I always shoot for 1st - I push...

Peace n Good Luck

Sean

[ZimbuTheMonkey]

Thanks guys. Here's how it went:

Basically I wanted to get in the money, but not be crippled and desperate to double up when I got there, so I took a stand and pushed. Villain called and showed A5o, I won.

Afterwards I got a little bit of luck and moved on to the two final tables. I had 35k, and villain with 18 or so went all-in UTG, I had AA on the button and pushed. He showed KJ, unfortunately he caught two pair on the flop and I lost half my stack. I kind of tilted and pushed with 67s right after, the same guy called with ATs and took me down in 12th place. I won 102$, but I had spent 108 with the rebuys and addons.

Oh well... still looking for a big score...