Discounting Outs

[NegativeEV]

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You have 2 . Only 11 left in the deck. Chances of any player being dealt two is about 4.5%. And there are only 5 other players in the hand. The fact that they are in the hand does not signifcantly raise the chances that they are holding suited cards since people limp w/ a lot of different cards than suited.

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Your math using 11/52 to get the 4.5% seems flawed. You can see 5 cards so I think 11/47 is more appropriate as your starting point. Not a big change, but when you run the math all the way through (1-(1-.054)^5))) it looks like the math tells you there is a ~ 24% chance someone else has a flush draw.

Now 24% based only on the math tells you that another flush draw is unlikely, HOWEVER, you have other information to work with given the flop action (i.e. min bet, raise, re-raise), and I think the flop action should indicate that a flush draw is fairly likely.

Short story- math and likely limp hands tell me another flush draw is unlikely. Longer story- flop action (better indicator of holdings) tells me a flush draw is fairly likely.

I would discount to 7-8 outs for purposes of analyzing pot size and would generally fold with the 3:1 pot. I would assess hero's folding equity at close to zero in this circumstance at a low limit SnG.

EDIT: note- the math flaw only changes the 4.5% to 5.4% which would only change the likelihood of another flush draw from 21% to 24%, thus not a big difference. The real KEY is the betting pattern and information gained on the flop which tells HERO that the flush draw may be in trouble.