Jeter, A-Rod and 'clutch'

antidan444 · #1 10-11-2005, 01:15 AM

When it comes to a player being 'clutch', I completely agree that the term is vastly overrated by the vast majority of fans and media members. I also believe that any player's numbers in "close and late" situations can fluctuate significantly from his overall numbers by variance, and variance alone.

However, I also believe there are players who live for the big moment, when the game is on the line, who want to be the one to decide the outcome, and also players who, if they were to look in the mirror and be honest with themselves, would admit they dread that very situation and the pressure that comes with it. And I do think this plays a role in sports ... i.e., the term 'clutch' does have some merit (again, not as much as most believe ... but some.)

Agree? Disagree?

pokerdirty · #2 10-11-2005, 01:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
When it comes to a player being 'clutch', I completely agree that the term is vastly overrated by the vast majority of fans and media members. I also believe that any player's numbers in "close and late" situations can fluctuate significantly from his overall numbers by variance, and variance alone.

However, I also believe there are players who live for the big moment, when the game is on the line, who want to be the one to decide the outcome, and also players who, if they were to look in the mirror and be honest with themselves, would admit they dread that very situation and the pressure that comes with it. And I do think this plays a role in sports ... i.e., the term 'clutch' does have some merit (again, not as much as most believe ... but some.)

Agree? Disagree?

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thank you for starting another thread on this. make me a mod please.

andyfox · #3 10-11-2005, 01:38 AM

Well, I noticed that as Jeter came off the field in the bottom of the 8th, he yelled at A-Rod, "C'mon" or something to that effect. He was trying to pump Alex up.

So one could say, I suppose, that Jeter was excited to have a chance to do something, but Alex was nervous about it. Sure enough, Jeter lined a single, and Alex hit into a double play. But was that really it? The pitch Jeter got to hit was a hanging curve. Alex swung at one that wasn't quite as hittable. Let's not forget that Jeter took a strike before he offered at a pitch, whereas Alex swung at the first strike. But the situation was different: Jeter needed to get on base by hook or by crook since the team was down by two. Once he got on, Alex could whack away, hoping to tie up the game with one swing.

antidan444 · #4 10-11-2005, 01:51 AM

As pertains to the ninth inning, that's a reasonable enough explanation.

How about in general? I guess where I struggle is that I see both sides of it. I know a lot of 'situational' stats are high-variance because of low sample size, and that we in the media (I'm a small-town writer) read too much into situational numbers, but I also think a certain amount of how a player reacts psychologically in those situations has some bearing on the results.

Maybe I'm looking for too precise an answer to a question that simply doesn't lend itself to that kind of answer.

pryor15 · #5 10-11-2005, 02:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I know a lot of 'situational' stats are high-variance because of low sample size, and that we in the media (I'm a small-town writer) read too much into situational numbers, but I also think a certain amount of how a player reacts psychologically in those situations has some bearing on the results.

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theoretically, if they're high-variance, the numbers should be inconsistent among themselves, either from similar situations or year-to-year. (i.e. you hit 'worse' in close and late, but 'better' after the 7th inning or something like that)

but when the numbers become a trend across the board over a 6-7 year span, high-lited by key individual moments, i think you can start to look at someone as being 'clutch' or a 'choker'

Tom Brady comes to mind. At first it's sample size and whatever, but at some point he becomes simply a great 'clutch' quarterback and the inverse can be said for some of his contemporaries. the same thing works in baseball. there are certain future hall of famers who have never hit in 'clutch' situations. at what point do we admit they don't handle pressure all that well?

mikech · #6 10-11-2005, 03:30 AM

all i know is that when a-rod came up as the tying run, i typed to a friend in im, "my prediction for this ab: 6-4-3 gidp." he then hit into a 5-4-3 dp. so, i was wrong, and not clutch. but i was happy.

pryor15 · #7 10-11-2005, 03:42 AM

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"my prediction for this ab: 6-4-3 gidp." he then hit into a 5-4-3 dp. so, i was wrong, and not clutch. but i was happy.

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variance. it's not your fault they didn't have the defense set up the way you needed.

when Mo Vaughn was in Boston, we'd bet on how he'd blow it in the 9th. i wonder if there's yankees fans who do that now.

Matt Williams · #8 10-11-2005, 03:54 AM

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i wonder if there's yankees fans who do that now.

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Yes. There are. Believe me.