Stop-n-Ramble (long) (I'm bored)

[Jman28]

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but can we boil this down to only 2 broad scenarios in which you are >35% after the flop?

you are >35%:
you are ahead after the flop
you are have 9+ outs to beat him


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Seems like we can, if it were this simple...

Don't let me discourage you, because you're doing a great job, but we gotta consider ICM calcs too. That makes it much tougher (I think?).

[Nicholasp27]

icm is already in, i thought?

there are only 3 scenarios to calculate (besides tying or losing all ur chips and going to 0): u fold, u s-n-g and he folds, u s-n-g and u win

i put those numbers in the earlier post

the hard part is getting the probability of those last 2 occurences (him folding and him calling and u winning) accurate...

a) put him on range of cards
b) probability that his hand+flop meets your criteria
c) range of hands that are >35% post-flop against his, given that his hand meets your criteria


so first let's decide on a decent range...doesn't have to be perfect, but shouldn't be too controversial

[Jman28]

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icm is already in, i thought?


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Sorry, I didn't see that. Cool. You're right.


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so first let's decide on a decent range...doesn't have to be perfect, but shouldn't be too controversial

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Okay. I'm comfortable with 22+, A2+, K8+, QT+, JT

[Nicholasp27]

ok, we'll go with 22+, A2+, K8+, QT+, JT

now, let's lock in the criteria

what will he call on flop with?

a)four flush/made flush
b)oes/made straight
c)pair over X(?)
d)3ofKind/2pair/boat/quads

so, assuming those are the only ones, the only thing left is to decide on what X should be in c)

should top pair, any kicker be included? or only kickers above Y?
what about pps that are decently high but not highest card on board? (ie qq on k-high flop)
we'll assume he'll call with any pp that is higher than any flop card


and what about scary flops:
will he call with tptk if there are 3 of a suit on the flop?
what about if there is a flop like qjt?