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  #11  
Old 09-20-2005, 02:15 AM
pergesu pergesu is offline
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Default Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus

[ QUOTE ]
Also the blinds are always worth stealing. If you begin a tournament with 45 extra chips, your ROI when compared to starting with just 1000 goes up signifigantly. If you look at it this way you will see that stealing the blinds does matter.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah I remember that thread, couldn't find it after doing some searching.

Let me first say I agree that getting those extra chips definitely matters, I'm not arguing that point. Is it worth trying to pick them up at the 11s? I haven't checked this out a lot, but it feels like the vast majority of my early round steal attempts get action, so I don't have a high success rate of picking them up uncontested. Do the times when I win because I use my position postflop, and when I make a hand that I'm happy to play hard, make up for all the times I get called and have to give up?

Just so you know I'm not challenging what you said. It feels like raises get called a lot more than they should, so I'm wondering if it's worth it to try to pick up blinds with weaker hands.
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  #12  
Old 09-20-2005, 02:17 AM
curtains curtains is offline
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Default Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus


I dunno man, everyone folded to you on the button for only 15 chips, dont you think its possible that two more will fold for about 30 chips? Even if they call, you are still in a pretty decent +EV scenario. If you had something like 22-55 calling seems a lot more reasonable.

88 is just too likely to be the best hand against one opponent even without hitting a set, and also can be easy to play depending on the flop.
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  #13  
Old 09-20-2005, 02:24 AM
pergesu pergesu is offline
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Default Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus

Just seems that a lot of the 11ers will call a lot because they feel like you're denying them their right to a free flop or something. But the fact that I have position and a solid starting hand should more than make up for the times I lose chips when they outflop me.

Okay now for the main point of my post. Had I raised preflop, then betting would be a no-brainer. But since I just limped, should I be less likely to lead into it, because I didn't show any strength? I mean in this situation I'm definitely betting when it's checked to me, but I guess in general if I limp ont the button should I be less willing to lead?
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  #14  
Old 09-20-2005, 02:25 AM
curtains curtains is offline
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Default Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus


You should still lead the flop, your opponent likely has nothing, and the % of times he will fold make your bet clearly +EV IMO.
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  #15  
Old 09-21-2005, 12:24 PM
Jason Strasser Jason Strasser is offline
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Default Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus

[ QUOTE ]
I actually brought this up a long time ago when I posted a theoretical question asking if everyone in the event started with 5 fewer chips and gave them all to you, what would your ROI be assuming you were all of equal skill level. I can't remember what the number was, but it was enough to make me dismiss the argument that stealing the blinds means nothing. I think it was something like 4 - 5% ROI, an obviously signifigant amount.

[/ QUOTE ]

Intuitively this seems like a rediculous statement.
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  #16  
Old 09-21-2005, 01:01 PM
mcpherzen mcpherzen is offline
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Default Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I actually brought this up a long time ago when I posted a theoretical question asking if everyone in the event started with 5 fewer chips and gave them all to you, what would your ROI be assuming you were all of equal skill level. I can't remember what the number was, but it was enough to make me dismiss the argument that stealing the blinds means nothing. I think it was something like 4 - 5% ROI, an obviously signifigant amount.

[/ QUOTE ]

Intuitively this seems like a rediculous statement.

[/ QUOTE ]

Boy, I concur. So, Curtains, you're arguing that if I am a 10% ROI'er at the $109's, I'd improve to be a 14%-15% ROI'er at the $109's if I started with T1045 and all my opponents started with T995???? I can't prove or disprove this, of course, but it makes zero sense to me that my ROI could improve by 40%-50% just because I start with 70 big blinds and all my opponents start with 67 big blinds. My best guess is that this advantage (T1045 to T995 of all your opponents) may improve your ROI ever so slightly, but the inherent variance built into the SNG is always going to swallow that improvement up, such that it's unnoticeable.

--Z
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  #17  
Old 09-21-2005, 01:07 PM
Nicholasp27 Nicholasp27 is offline
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Default Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus

with 1k chip stacks of 995 for everyone and 1045 for yourself, your ev goes from .10 to .1041, or .41%
not 4%

in lower sngs with 800 starting chips, it jumps to .51%
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  #18  
Old 09-21-2005, 04:11 PM
curtains curtains is offline
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Default Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus


The numbers were antiintuitive to me also, and was surprised they were that high.

Ask Daliman, hes the one who came up with the numbers, although after really thinking about it, I suspect the numbers are correct or at least close to correct for a table of breakeven players with no rake.
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  #19  
Old 09-21-2005, 04:19 PM
Nicholasp27 Nicholasp27 is offline
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Default Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus

i used ICM Calculator and it goes from .10 to .1041 w/1000 chip stacks and to .1051 with 800 chip stacks...so only .4 or .5%, not 4 or 5%
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  #20  
Old 09-21-2005, 04:25 PM
curtains curtains is offline
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Default Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus

I'm talking about the effect it would have on your ROI, not the effect it has on your EV. The extra chips are theoretically worth about $10 in a $215 sit and go. Winning $10 more per sit and go would be worth about 4-5 percentage points of ROI. I don't profess these numbers are exact but I suspect they are relatively close. I don't see any reason why these $10 of chips should be worth only $3-4 to my ROI.
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