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View Poll Results: Ok, now what?
Buy 2nd monitor, 8 the $22s 13 21.67%
Quad the $55s 25 41.67%
Quad the $33s 22 36.67%
Voters: 60. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1  
Old 09-20-2005, 03:05 PM
tjh tjh is offline
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Default General theory: Blind stealing, SB question.

This was a party $22 SNG but it lead to a general question that I do not have a quick answer for so I thought I would post here.

I was in the SB and there were 4 players it was folded to me and I had QXo and I pushed.

BB called all-in with J4s. Villain had me covered. My hand held up.

I realized at once that I had a problem on my left. He either thought I was stealing and my hand was not good enough to disprove that idea. Or villain just knew enough to assume that I was on a broad range of hands and that J4o was better than most of them.

So here is my hypothetical.

My hypothetical goal is to not win tournies but just to win big blinds when I am the SB and it is folded to me. How can I do this ??

How do I do this ?

I assume that I have to push with any hand that is better than a random hand. So I would be pushing with the best 49% of the hands in the universe of known hands.

So what are those hands ? Does anyone have access to that data or the ability to run a simulation of one million showdowns or something.

In order to make this fun I will add a poll.
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Old 09-20-2005, 03:16 PM
caretaker1 caretaker1 is offline
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Default Re: General theory: Blind stealing, SB question.

Not sure if I'm oversimplifying this, but if your goal is not to win the tourney, but to win the blind, then the optimal way to do that would be to push with any two in that situation. What am I missing?
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Old 09-20-2005, 03:17 PM
jeffraider jeffraider is offline
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Default Re: General theory: Blind stealing, SB question.

I can't remember for sure but I seem to remember hearing that Q7s was 50% against random hands, and that's the line, anything worse is worse than 50%.

If you're only trying to win big blinds you would push any two here because your opponent is trying to win the tourney and he'll fold often enough that it doesn't matter what you're pushing with. This is dependant on stack sizes etc but I think if your stacks are equal and the blinds are the right size (say 1200 each stack and blinds of 100/200) you can push any two every time.

Keep in mind I don't do terribly well with this kind of hypothetical theory stuff.
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Old 09-20-2005, 03:36 PM
tjh tjh is offline
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Posts: 176
Default Re: General theory: Blind stealing, SB question.

[ QUOTE ]
Not sure if I'm oversimplifying this, but if your goal is not to win the tourney, but to win the blind, then the optimal way to do that would be to push with any two in that situation. What am I missing?

[/ QUOTE ]

No you are correct, I messed up. Basically I just want to know what the best 50% of the hands are. My hypothetical question was poorly worded. When the BB calls I want to win most of the time. And I guess therefore I expect it should have been said. BB calls every time what hands do I need to push with to win most of them.. DUH !!
[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
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Old 09-20-2005, 03:40 PM
jeffraider jeffraider is offline
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Default Re: General theory: Blind stealing, SB question.

[ QUOTE ]

BB calls every time what hands do I need to push with to win most of them.. DUH !!
[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I just did a quick google search and I think the magical line you're looking for is in fact Q7, which is known as the computer hand because it was found to win 51.44% of the time against a random hand.
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  #6  
Old 09-20-2005, 04:35 PM
Nicholasp27 Nicholasp27 is offline
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Default Re: General theory: Blind stealing, SB question.

according to pokerstove, top 50% of hands are:

33+, a2+, k2s+,q2s+,j4s+,t6s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,k5o+,q7o+,j7 o+,t7o+,98o
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  #7  
Old 09-20-2005, 05:34 PM
caretaker1 caretaker1 is offline
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Default Re: General theory: Blind stealing, SB question.

If your question is, what's the top 50%, that's already been answered.
If your also looking for, what would be +EV, you should incoroporate stack sizes and the influence of the fact that you are getting slightly better odds because of the presence of the chips in the blinds. You actually would not need quite that good a hand to profitably push in your hypothetical.

$.02
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