Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Probability

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 09-10-2005, 11:10 AM
Tater10 Tater10 is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 15
Default Football pool probabilites...

Maybe i'm missing something.

I am in a football pool that you pick with lines.

Assume there are 4 players, and 4 games, and the probability of winning each individual game is 50%.

Name/Team1/Team2/Team3/Team4
Alf/A/C/E/G
Bob/A/D/E/H
Cat/A/C/F/H
Don/B/D/F/H

(basically, Don is the only player to take team B, the rest split on the other games.) If there is a tie, a winner is chosen randomly.

I ran a 21k sim, and have the probabilies:

Alf: 22.6%
Bob: 22.5%
Cat: 23.4%
Don: 31.5%

Can I extrapolate this, and say when I play in my football pools, i should try and pick the opposite of what other people have?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 09-11-2005, 05:39 AM
xniNja xniNja is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 474
Default Re: Football pool probabilites...

If I knew more about football pools I might better be able to answer this... but the only thing I can offer is an interrogative question...

If the probability of winning each game is 50%.... why does that 21K sim say Don is the winner? Is it because he picked team B? Therefore you should pick team B?

I don't understand the scenario, I guess.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 09-11-2005, 02:02 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Football pool probabilites...

If:
1. All results are equally probable.
and
2. The payout is split between all of the people that picked a particular result.
Then it's obviously true that the least chosen combinations have the best value.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:16 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.