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  #1  
Old 07-22-2005, 03:58 AM
Nottom Nottom is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Hokie Country
Posts: 4,030
Default Ugly Bubble situation

Is there anyway to have avoided my fate here? I hate folding as much as the next guy, but I never saw a spot where I could get my money in and didn't expect the shorty to keep folding until it was too late.

There are a good 4 or 5 decisions here that I very well have completely butchered.

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $4300 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $3020 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $1570 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $1110 )
Trny:14142904 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 3d 7h ]
Shorty folds.
BigStack raises [1000].
2ndStack folds.
HERO folds.
BigStack does not show cards.
BigStack wins 1450 chips

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $4750 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $2870 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $1270 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $1110 )
Trny:14142904 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 4d Ad ]
BigStack raises [800].
2ndStack folds.
HERO folds.
Shorty folds.
BigStack does not show cards.
BigStack wins 1250 chips

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $5200 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $2870 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $1120 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $810 )
Trny:14142904 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 3s 9s ]
2ndStack folds.
HERO folds.
Shorty folds.
BigStack does not show cards.
BigStack wins 450 chips

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $5350 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $2870 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $1120 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $660 )
Trny:14142904 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Td Kd ]
HERO folds.
Shorty folds.
BigStack folds.
2ndStack does not show cards.
2ndStack wins 600 chips

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $5150 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $3070 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $1120 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $660 )
Trny:14142904 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 9d 6d ]
Shorty folds.
BigStack raises [1000].
2ndStack folds.
HERO folds.
BigStack does not show cards.
BigStack wins 1600 chips

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $5750 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $2870 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $720 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $660 )
Trny:14142904 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Tc Ad ]
BigStack folds.
2ndStack raises [800].
HERO folds.
Shorty folds.
2ndStack does not show cards.
2ndStack wins 1400 chips

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $5750 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $3470 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $520 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $260 )
Trny:14142904 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Qh Kd ]
2ndStack folds.
HERO folds.
Shorty folds.
BigStack does not show cards.
BigStack wins 600 chips

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $5950 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $3470 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $520 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $60 )
Trny:14142904 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 7h Qh ]
HERO folds.
Shorty folds.
BigStack folds.
2ndStack does not show cards.
2ndStack wins 600 chips

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $5750 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $3670 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $520 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $60 )
Trny:14142904 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Qs Ts ]
Shorty folds.
BigStack folds.
2ndStack folds.
HERO does not show cards.
HERO wins 600 chips

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $5750 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $3470 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $720 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $60 )
Trny:14142904 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Kd 7d ]
BigStack folds.
2ndStack raises [800].
Your time bank will become active in less than 20 seconds. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
HERO is all-In [520]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6s, Ad, 2d ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9c ]
** Dealing River ** [ 7h ]
2ndStack shows [ Th, Tc ] a pair of tens.
HERO shows [ Kd, 7d ] a pair of sevens.
Shorty shows [ 7s, 6d ] two pairs, sevens and sixes.
2ndStack wins 80 chips from side pot #2 with a pair of tens.
2ndStack wins 1320 chips from side pot #1 with a pair of tens.
Shorty wins 180 chips from the main pot with two pairs, sevens and sixes.
HERO finished in fourth place.
HERO has left the table.
The Small Blind left the table. The Dealer button remains in place.
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  #2  
Old 07-22-2005, 04:15 AM
HesseJam HesseJam is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 160
Default Re: Ugly Bubble situation

You tried to chicken your way into 3rd. You had two good hands KTs (No.4, that was maybe too early), calling 2nd stack with AT and oushing KQ. You could've done something at that time. However, I sometimes play the same like you and settle for 3rd if I sense that the big guys are bullying and, more important, that the smallest stack is very weak (which he was here).
If that was your strategy, why did you deviate at the worst time from it? If you are capable to play the last hand why didn't you raise the better hands with more FE before? You should've stayed put. The small stack was no threat anymore. He could have tripled up to 180 at best (which he did). He still has to post the small blind at 200 and may drop out there. So the overall survival chance for the small stack going through your last hand and the next hand was only 25%.
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  #3  
Old 07-22-2005, 04:22 AM
tigerite tigerite is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 360
Default Re: Ugly Bubble situation

Not pushing the KTs is horrible, in my opinion. The ATo is closer, and the KQo will be called for sure.
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  #4  
Old 07-22-2005, 04:28 AM
Nottom Nottom is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Hokie Country
Posts: 4,030
Default Re: Ugly Bubble situation

[ QUOTE ]
If that was your strategy, why did you deviate at the worst time from it? If you are capable to play the last hand why didn't you raise the better hands with more FE before?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think I ever had any FE before, with the possible exception of the KT hand (and maybe the 93s hand just prior to it).

[ QUOTE ]
The small stack was no threat anymore. He could have tripled up to 180 at best (which he did). He still has to post the small blind at 200 and may drop out there. So the overall survival chance for the small stack going through your last hand and the next hand was only 25%.

[/ QUOTE ]

I admit, I didn't completely think through the fact that the shorty would still be all-in for the SB next hand and so his chances of winning two hands in a row are pretty slim. I figured by calling I increase the chance of getting rid of him now as well as taking my best shot at rebuilding my stack a bit for ITM play if I luck out and win the pot.

Remember in order for me to not make the money the placing needs to go Shorty, 2ndStack, Me ... any of the other 5 combinations results in either 3rd place money or a double-up. The raiser likely has a very wide range here, and my hand isn't great but should stand up rather well against a random hand and a loose push.
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  #5  
Old 07-22-2005, 04:32 AM
Olback Olback is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 185
Default Re: Ugly Bubble situation

I probarbly would have pushed the k,10 hand. If not then i defintely would have called with the a,10 from the SB.

Also agreeing with other if you wanted to fold into the money then i guess you have to fold the last hand as well.
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  #6  
Old 07-22-2005, 04:32 AM
HesseJam HesseJam is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 160
Default Re: Ugly Bubble situation

Yeah, KTs should be pushed. Is it so bad if KQ gets called with any two? Pokerstove gives more than 60 %.
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  #7  
Old 07-22-2005, 04:35 AM
Nottom Nottom is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Hokie Country
Posts: 4,030
Default Re: Ugly Bubble situation

[ QUOTE ]
Not pushing the KTs is horrible, in my opinion. The ATo is closer, and the KQo will be called for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

The KT push is almost certainly very -EV from an ICM standpoint. Remember the Bigstack is in the blind and will call quite liberally getting better than 2-1. The only question is if this is a time to throw ICM out the window.
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  #8  
Old 07-22-2005, 04:36 AM
HesseJam HesseJam is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 160
Default Re: Ugly Bubble situation

[ QUOTE ]

Remember in order for me to not make the money the placing needs to go Shorty, 2ndStack, Me ... any of the other 5 combinations results in either 3rd place money or a double-up. The raiser likely has a very wide range here, and my hand isn't great but should stand up rather well against a random hand and a loose push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for pointing that out. I overlooked that. Your push has something going for it here.
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  #9  
Old 07-22-2005, 05:00 AM
tigerite tigerite is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 360
Default Re: Ugly Bubble situation

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Not pushing the KTs is horrible, in my opinion. The ATo is closer, and the KQo will be called for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

The KT push is almost certainly very -EV from an ICM standpoint. Remember the Bigstack is in the blind and will call quite liberally getting better than 2-1. The only question is if this is a time to throw ICM out the window.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually the 2nd big stack is in the blind, and your 1100 can make a big dent in his 2400 stack that he now has, I don't think he will call as liberally as you think. Most big stacks don't call from the SB without very good hands
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  #10  
Old 07-22-2005, 05:01 AM
tigerite tigerite is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 360
Default Re: Ugly Bubble situation

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, KTs should be pushed. Is it so bad if KQ gets called with any two? Pokerstove gives more than 60 %.

[/ QUOTE ]

But you want to avoid situations where you are only a slight favourite on the bubble.
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