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  #1  
Old 12-27-2005, 01:14 PM
cmillard cmillard is offline
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Default Pot odds question

I need some help with applying odds.....I understand counting my outs and coming up with a % chance of hitting.

What I am having trouble with is comparing that % with the pot size and/or a bet that is made to the pot.

How do I know what % chance is okay to make a call? When I hear the phrases like "4 to 1 on my money to call", I don't really understand what I am looking for.

I hope what I am asking makes sense.

Thanks for any help.
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  #2  
Old 12-27-2005, 02:03 PM
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Default Re: Pot odds question

If there is $80 in the pot, and the bet to you is $20, then you're getting 4 to 1 for your $20 bet: 20x4=80.

If you think you have a better than 4 to 1 shot of winning the hand, then it's a good bet, vis a vis an overlay.

People seem to get confused by the difference between pot odds and pot equity. The bottom line is that pot odds are a "fact." Pot equity is an opinion.

In the aforementioned eg. your pot odds "are" 4 to 1. You "think" you chances of winning the hand (pot equity) is better than 4 to 1.
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  #3  
Old 12-27-2005, 02:44 PM
cmillard cmillard is offline
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Default Re: Pot odds question

So, tell me if I am understanding this correctly...if I am on a flush draw with ~36% of hitting my flush and I am getting 4 to 1 odds with my call....it is correct to call, right? If so, at what point is it not okay to call? Please excuse my confusion on this....obviously math isn't my thing!
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Old 12-27-2005, 03:26 PM
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Default Re: Pot odds question

% to pot odds conversion:

(100 - %_to_hit)/(%_to_hit) = odds to hit.

As long as those odds are greater than the odds the pot is laying you are 'correct' to call.

In your flush example, you say you have a 36% chance of hitting (and assumed winning). So, your pot odds are (100 - 36)/(36) = 64/36 ~= 2:1. The pot lays 4:1 to you, which is greater than 2:1.

Of course, you are 36% to hit on EITHER the turn or the river when drawing on a 4 flush on the flop. You need to evaluate your odds based on hitting on the next card because a bet may be coming on the turn which becomes its own pot odds problem.
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  #5  
Old 12-27-2005, 04:01 PM
cmillard cmillard is offline
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Default Re: Pot odds question

Would it be correct then to assume that with any flush draw or OESD on the flop, it would be "correct" to call any bet that is "pot size" or less?
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Old 12-27-2005, 04:03 PM
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Default Re: Pot odds question

[ QUOTE ]

Of course, you are 36% to hit on EITHER the turn or the river when drawing on a 4 flush on the flop. You need to evaluate your odds based on hitting on the next card because a bet may be coming on the turn which becomes its own pot odds problem.

[/ QUOTE ]

I play mainly NL, and I've found it's better to treat each card (turn & river) individually, than as a unit and assume that because you're getting better than 2:1 postflop on a flush draw, it's a good bet.

Too much can happen to make that plan to go down the toilet. In addition, flushes are very obvious so that even when you hit them you often don't get paid, and you can get creamed by a full boat redraw on the river.

I was watching poker on TV, and one of the announcers, I forget whom, was saying that flush draws are pretty much fool's gold in Hold'm.
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  #7  
Old 12-27-2005, 04:29 PM
rabbitlover rabbitlover is offline
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Default Re: Pot odds question

For sure if you are going for the nut flush and the board has not paired. If it has then you better have a good handle on what type of hands your opponent has played and if he is capable/willing to lay a hand down.
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  #8  
Old 12-27-2005, 07:15 PM
Mike Haven Mike Haven is offline
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Default Re: Pot odds question

[ QUOTE ]
Would it be correct then to assume that with any flush draw or OESD on the flop, it would be "correct" to call any bet that is "pot size" or less?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

If you have four to a flush on the flop then your odds of hitting the flush on the turn are 38 to 9 or 4.2 to 1.

If a bet is pot-sized then you are getting only 2 to 1, and you should not call.

Let's say there is 10 in the pot, with a bet of 10. Your call would mean there is 30 in the pot. If you miss your flush, your odds of hitting on the river are 37 to 9 or 4.1 to 1. If your opponent bets 10 or more on the river, again, you're not getting enough odds to call.

A gambler might argue that he will make up for calling at only 2 to 1 by winning more money on the times he does hit the flush on the turn, but this is by no means definitely the case. (The opponent might not call your bet once the third suited card hits; the opponent may beat your flush.)
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