Two Plus Two Older Archives David please elaborate...
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#1
08-06-2002, 11:44 AM
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David you asked "1. How many times must you throw two dice before you are more likely than not to roll a seven?" Your answer to this querry was 4 instead of never. Please elaborate on how this can be true paying careful attention to the manner in which you worded your question. Does this mean that the rule (law) of independent trials does not apply? And is this why I always lose at the craps table? [img]/images/smile.gif[/img]

Jimbo

#2
08-06-2002, 03:32 PM
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or answer it at \"I disagree with a) \" below? *NM*

#3
08-06-2002, 05:25 PM
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The first question was irrelevant. I might have chosen better words. It was only there to set up the 2nd question.
#4
08-06-2002, 06:59 PM
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Thanks for your clarification, I thoroughly enjoy taking the time to answer an irrelevant question with a correct answer, and getting this response.

I suppose any poor wording in your poker books leading me to a wrong conclusion would be irrelevant as well since I already paid for the book.

Jimbo

#5
08-06-2002, 07:43 PM
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"1. How many times must you throw two dice before you are more likely than not to roll a seven?"

You must roll the dice 4 times in order to be more likely than not to roll a 7, but only as calculated before you roll the dice once. If you roll the dice 4 times and still haven't gotten a 7 your probability is still 1/6 on the next roll, though you are still more likely than not to get a 7 on your next 4 rolls.
#6
08-06-2002, 08:48 PM
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Bruce,

You are ALWAYS less likely to throw a 7 than all the other combinations possible. Five times less likely. Independent trials!!!

Jimbo

#7
08-07-2002, 06:10 AM
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Go back and read carefully. Nobody said you had to be more likely to get the seven on one throw, only in 4 throws. In any case, on one throw you are 6 times less likely to get a 7 than all the other combinations. I have no idea where you got 5 times less likely.
#8
08-07-2002, 06:16 AM
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argh, scratch last comment

5 times more likely, you are correct (not about the semantic nonsense).
#9
08-07-2002, 12:53 PM
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Re: argh, scratch last comment

BruceZ,

I greatly admire your math abilities (something I lack) but your comprehension of the English language belittles your greater intellect. Just more semantic nonsense for you to explore.

Best Regards,

Jimbo

ps: I certainly may have misunderstood the intent of the question but not the verbage as it is written.

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