Question about SSHE

In the Postflop Concepts Introduction (pg. 96 of SSHE), there is an example where you have Q7h and the pot is 10 small bets. The flop comes Jc 7s 5h, and the preflop raiser bets, and we are supposed to raise.

I recognize this as a raise or fold situation, since by calling we give anyone odds for their weak draws (and if everyone folds behind us we may have bought a free card).

However, he calls folding a "major mistake", and I am unsure why. And if we are reraised, do we regard our hand as having 6.5 (2 7's, 3 Q's, and 1.5 BDFD) outs? So we would call getting 1:15 odds?

[Aaron W.]

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In the Postflop Concepts Introduction (pg. 96 of SSHE), there is an example where you have Q7h and the pot is 10 small bets. The flop comes Jc 7s 5h, and the preflop raiser bets, and we are supposed to raise.

I recognize this as a raise or fold situation, since by calling we give anyone odds for their weak draws (and if everyone folds behind us we may have bought a free card).

However, he calls folding a "major mistake", and I am unsure why. And if we are reraised, do we regard our hand as having 6.5 (2 7's, 3 Q's, and 1.5 BDFD) outs? So we would call getting 1:15 odds?

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It's certainly not raise or fold. Look at your reasoning again. You should never fold a hand because someone behind you has odds to outdraw you.

Yes, call if re-raised. Folding now is an even larger mistake than folding the first time (now that it's supposedly heads up and the pot is some 30% bigger).

I think this is a pretty extreme example. However, the reason it's such a big mistake is that you a good chance of having the best hand in a large pot. So by raising you get it HU with the PFR, who may have AK or AJ or some other hand that you beat. I don't think this is the greatest example, b/c your hand is so weak and your draws weak as well, but you need to be using position like this to push people out of big pots that you have a chance at winning.

[kirkt]

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However, he calls folding a "major mistake", and I am unsure why. And if we are reraised, do we regard our hand as having 6.5 (2 7's, 3 Q's, and 1.5 BDFD) outs? So we would call getting 1:15 odds?

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There are 11 small bets in the pot and we are paying to see another card.

There is additional value to raising aside from the free card. We have 6.5 outs, giving us a ~27% chance of winning. If there are 2-3 other passive callers with trash hands, we are charging them more money to chase with our bet. This is pushing our edge.

We call the three bet and worry about being crushed.

[kapw7]

Folding is a major mistake? Does he mean NOT folding? And raising? This is even worse (than not folding) I think. Maybe you can call and hope to get a flush draw or a 2 pair etc or get it heads-up (highly unlikely) on the turn but staying in with a pair of 7s is a waste of chips (unless it is heads-up).

[Aaron W.]

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Folding is a major mistake? Does he mean NOT folding? And raising? This is even worse (than not folding) I think. Maybe you can call and hope to get a flush draw or a 2 pair etc or get it heads-up (highly unlikely) on the turn but staying in with a pair of 7s is a waste of chips (unless it is heads-up).

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It's not a waste of chips if the raise MAKES this pot heads up...

[kapw7]

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Folding is a major mistake? Does he mean NOT folding? And raising? This is even worse (than not folding) I think. Maybe you can call and hope to get a flush draw or a 2 pair etc or get it heads-up (highly unlikely) on the turn but staying in with a pair of 7s is a waste of chips (unless it is heads-up).

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It's not a waste of chips if the raise MAKES this pot heads up...

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Sure. But this is supposed to be advice for loose games. I haven't seen a lot of such games where you raise and everyone else folds for 2 bets in a big pot. And you risk paying 3-4 bets (when you get reraised) and then getting trapped (because "the pot is big") with a trash hand

[cmwck]

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Folding is a major mistake? Does he mean NOT folding? And raising? This is even worse (than not folding) I think. Maybe you can call and hope to get a flush draw or a 2 pair etc or get it heads-up (highly unlikely) on the turn but staying in with a pair of 7s is a waste of chips (unless it is heads-up).

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It's not a waste of chips if the raise MAKES this pot heads up...

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Sure. But this is supposed to be advice for loose games. I haven't seen a lot of such games where you raise and everyone else folds for 2 bets in a big pot. And you risk paying 3-4 bets (when you get reraised) and then getting trapped (because "the pot is big") with a trash hand

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Getting it heads up the majority of the time is not what makes this raise correct. We raise to drive out a better hand, cut down the odds of players drawing against us, and have the option of taking a free card if we want. Raising sometimes wins us the whole pot. Yes, sometimes things will go wrong, and we'll waste a couple extra SBs, but contrast that to failing to raise, which will often cost us a pot of 7-8 BBs.

[DavidC]

OOC would this change if hero had bottom pair instead of middle pair?

[kapw7]

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Getting it heads up the majority of the time is not what makes this raise correct. We raise to drive out a better hand, cut down the odds of players drawing against us, and have the option of taking a free card if we want. Raising sometimes wins us the whole pot. Yes, sometimes things will go wrong, and we'll waste a couple extra SBs, but contrast that to failing to raise, which will often cost us a pot of 7-8 BBs.

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Winning the pot right there is simply not going to happen. What are you going to do then on the next streets? Call down with a trash hand? Fold the turn in a huge pot and after investing 2+ bets on the flop?

I think this hand is an example of overagression in SSHE and is certainly not applicable in online games. It maybe correct in SH games and even then with a better kicker than a queen (mainly Ace)