AA vs. ragged board. Slow down...?

MrDannimal · #1 07-21-2005, 06:06 PM

UTG is 18.2/8/2.4 over 90 hands.

I suppose I'm looking at the turn here. Should I have raised?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB folds, BB calls, UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, UTG caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (10 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

River: (13 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, BB folds.

Final Pot: 15 BB

Matt Williams · #2 07-21-2005, 06:12 PM

With UTG check-raising, I would have slowed down instead of re-raising. He probably had a Q-9 or flopped a set.

callmedonnie · #3 07-21-2005, 06:19 PM

First of all, this board isn't raggy. there's a queen. I think you may have the best hand but a read would help. Against a LAG, obviously I am much more confident in these Aces. Anyway, I'm definitely calling down here unless the player is the rockiest of rocks.

ncboiler · #4 07-21-2005, 06:25 PM

Yes raise the turn. He may have flopped 2 pair but I doubt he flopped a set. He is probably very proud of a Q he is holding.

ncboiler · #5 07-21-2005, 06:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
With UTG check-raising, I would have slowed down instead of re-raising. He probably had a Q-9 or flopped a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he is asking about the turn, his 2 pair A/3 are way ahead of villain's 2 pair Q/9 if that is what villain actually has.

hobbsmann · #6 07-21-2005, 06:45 PM

This is guy is your run of the mill of the mill TAG. The OP posted stats of 18/8/2.4 which should allow us the narrow down his UTG limping hand range to mid range PP, KQ, QJs, and a coulple of other hands we can throw out the window after the flop action.

As for Hero's line I like his 3-bet on the flop because there is a decent chance UTG c/r with a KQ type hand and with callers in between you can just go ahead and pump this for value. But by the time UTG caps it again you definetly need to slow down and possbily consider ditching your hand at some point. I'd say your most likely against 99 here, but an overplayed TPGK is a possibility and makes a call down a viable option as well.

lufbradolly · #7 07-21-2005, 07:14 PM

i'd play it the same. The 3 on the turn may have counterfeited his 2 pair if he has Q9 so you could be good. A raise on the turn wouldn't be bad but UTG hasn't slowed down so he could have you beat. 99 (or possibly Q9s) is my guess for UTG's hand QQ you would of heard from preflop.

#8 07-21-2005, 07:37 PM

Why do you doubt I set? As has already been stated his stats make him look like a TAG so from UTG he's calling with 99, KQ and maybe KJ. AQ you'd think he'd probably raise but maybe he limped with it. AK and QQ are less likely because they probably would have been a raise. After the flop play I guess he *could* be limping UTG with Q9 but it's much much much much more likely he has 99, AQ or KQ and maybe QQ.

Since he doesn't seem like a maniac capping the flop means at least two pair. Q9 I doubt, Q3 no way. I'd say he's got 99. MAYBE QQ. Worth calling down but I don't think you want to be putting more money in the pot.

HajiShirazu · #9 07-21-2005, 11:57 PM

I go ahead and 3 bet the flop as well but it's close, a queen is still most likely at this point but checkraising the field like he did here is a strong move. He might also have JT. The turn changes nothing, this guy doesnt have Q9 here. You're going to see the set of nines from a guy with these stats a lot. Calling down is standard.

erc007 · #10 07-22-2005, 12:09 AM

This smells a lot like a set on the flop that just turned into a boat when the board paired on the turn. Since there is a good chance that you are now drawing dead, it would be a good idea to slow down. There is no way that you should be raisinf this turn IMO. I see people cap the flop with two-pair here too...so the turn pairing the board helps you if you were against Q9. I would think that the likelihood of a 18% VPIP player limping Q9 or Q9s from UTG is not very good. Against this opponent, I think that you are behind or drawing dead about 70-75% of the time here.