JJ - OOP against a 4 flush??? How do you play this...

[Sasnak]

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We have to bet the flop, but I think about folding to the flop raise. He's a favourite with as little as a flush draw + one over, and we're drawing nearly dead when behind.

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We're 9.50 SB's when the flop falls. I'm feeling I need to lead here. A check/call WA/WB line just doesn't seem to fit.

I bet, he raises and now the pot is 12.50 SB's and I need to spew one more SB to peel a turn card. It costs me one more SB if a scare card falls, but I could lose a 12.50 SB pot if a blank or J hits. I'm thinking I need to call the raise.

~

[detruncate]

Yeah... it's not WA/WB. We have to try to use the flop to push him off overcards if we plan to continue.

Avert your eyes kids, I'm going to try to math.

If we assume TT-AA, AK: 45.24% of the time we're drawing to an average of 1.6 outs, 50% of the time we have Villain drawing to 8 outs, 4.76% of the time we're split and being freerolled.

45.24% of the time we have 1.5% equity. 50% of the time we have 83% equity. 4.76 % of the time we have, what... ~22.75% equity (45.5% of the time we're up against JJ we split).

So I think we have about 43.26% raw equity on the flop, and that's pretty much the worst case scenario since we started with a very narrow range of hands. Poker stove gives us 31.5% on the flop for what it's worth, and I probably should have just gone with Sir Stove in the first place.

In any case, we won't be able to fully exploit our equity since we presumably have to instafold any A, K, or [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] without knowing whether it actually helped Villain. It gives him 17/47 + 17/46 = 73% equity. This probably doesn't change unless we open up his range of pf 3-betting cards a lot. AQ, for instance, means that Ks are safe, but Qs will now be dirty -- we either weight our calls purely based on %, or assume Ks are more likely to hurt us and still put in chips when a Q falls, or fold both... so the net result is confusing and/or actively bad. We need him to be 3-betting enough hands that we feel relatively safe calling down pretty much no matter what for things to improve a lot.

We're looking at ~4.83:1 to call down assuming he checks through the river with AK -- 7.25 BB : 1.5 BB effective odds with about 27% effective equity if I didn't screw anything up. Leaves us a little short on the face of it.

Given that he sometimes checks behind on a safe card for us and doesn't necessarily bet every scare card falls, it's got to be close to a call... but I can't see it ever being more than marginally profitable.

This was less for your benefit than it was for mine, and any thoughts/corrections/amendments and/or creative insults are welcome.

[silkyslim]

id check/fold. not only is 4 to a flush which you dont have, there is an over to your pair, you were 3-bet pf, and raised on the flop. He likes his hand and im pretty sure he wont fold to a bet given the previous action.