but surley... (a question about pot odds)

[blaze666]

lets say that there is 2 in the pot, and it costs me 1 to call, so i am getting 2:1 on the flop, and i have a four flush. the odds of completing this flush is 3:1, so it is a -ev call, but what if i could garuntee to double up if i make my flush to make it a +ev desicion? would it be right to call then?

[Henke]

First, the odds (against) are 39:9 or 39/9:9 which is approx 4.3:1 to make the flush by the turn. If you have immediate pot odds 2:1, this might be -EV. But, the real odds are how much you will win if you win against how much you will lose when you lose. However, this is usually impossible to know ahead of time, since it depends on your opponents hand and the board. If the board will say pair the top card on the turn, and your opponent has middle pair, he might get scared and fold.

But, your thinking is correct, and if you're drawing to a hand that's almost surely going to hold up, you can call a few more hands than your immediate odds imply. It's what Sklansky calls "implied odds".

[AaronBrown]

In addition to Henke's excellent post, I would add it depends crucially on the flop and your opponents. You like a flop of, say, A Q J. Why? Your opponents are probably betting on high cards or straight possibilities. Ideally, you'll hit your flush and showdown against an Ace high straight and three Queens.

You hate a flop of, say, 3 9 9. There are full house possibilities. If those don't pan out, your opponents are not likely to bet the moon holding, say, Jacks and nines or nines with AK for kickers. Another worry is someone else is going for the flush and holds a higher top card.

If your opponents are careful card players, you won't get rich when they see three suited cards on the board. If your opponents like to throw good money after bad, your implied odds improve.

Another reason to stay in is advertising. If you don't make your flush and fold, you may get pegged as a guy who can be bluffed. Bad opponents won't notice and goods ones may put you on the flush, but in between you can salvage some value even if you don't fill the flush. When you get dealt AA, someone may try to scare you out of the pot.

[blaze666]

micro limits at pacific, 10 handed, loose game, i can pretty much garuntee a double up.