Playing numbers

[DougOzzzz]

It's nice to have books like Sports Interaction that frequently have "off" lines.

Anyway, I'm looking at the NFL lines from Sports Interaction and Mansion.

I see a few plays where a small profit can be made by scalping/middling.

Cleveland +3 -110 at SI
JAX -3 +112 at Mansion.

A 2 cent scalp. One side has to be profitable. I went with Cleveland, solely because I trust that the Mansion line is closer to fair than the SIA line.

Detroit +3 -115 at SIA
Minnesota -2.5 -104 at Mansion.

This could be a slightly profitable middle. The 3 is worth about 25 cents. Once again, without knowing anything about the game, I took the SIA line.

Houston/Baltimore OV 37 -110 at SIA
UN 38 -103 at Pinnacle (-104 at Mansion).

Another profitable soft middle. I have the value of going from 37 to 38 at around 17 cents. The 13 cent difference is not enough. Rather than attempt the middle, I took the over. This is the only game that I "know" something about. Fezzik loves o37, and who am I to argue with a guy who has picked 50% winners this year?

[DougOzzzz]

Checked Pinnacle's lines and Min is -2.5 +101, and you can sell the 3 for +124.

That's a 9 cent scalp with the SIA -115 line.

[playersare]

if a middle is worth a scalp by selling the half point, theoretically it's more profitable in the long run to play it as is and hope it hits the side. Pinnacle does not sell down for a arb unless it can make additional +EV (for them, not you), so sit on your Detroit bet at SIA and since Pinnacle's +2.5 is still shaded towards the home team, wait and the price on the Vikings should continue to get better.

here are some of the lines I locked down earlier that have potential to move in my favor:
ATL +3-110
N.O. +3.5-105
CIN +3.5-115

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
if a middle is worth a scalp by selling the half point, theoretically it's more profitable in the long run to play it as is and hope it hits the side.


[/ QUOTE ]
Yes - it is more profitable if you put the same amount of money in play. However, since a scalp is 0 risk, you can max bet it without any worries. Unfortunately, SIA only has a 1K max and I don't even have that much in my account.

I didn't scalp it - just stuck with the +3 -115 which seems like a good number.

[ QUOTE ]

Pinnacle does not sell down for a arb unless it can make additional +EV (for them, not you), so sit on your Detroit bet at SIA and since Pinnacle's +2.5 is still shaded towards the home team, wait and the price on the Vikings should continue to get better.


[/ QUOTE ]
Pinnacle is one of the "smart" books when it comes to buying/selling on/off the 3. Most places allow a 20 cent buy and 10 cent sell. It is always worth it to buy at these places. Pinnacle lets you sell for more (still not worth it) but charges more to buy (also not worth it).
[ QUOTE ]

here are some of the lines I locked down earlier that have potential to move in my favor:
ATL +3-110
N.O. +3.5-105
CIN +3.5-115

[/ QUOTE ]

All these are still available. Maybe they will move soon - I really have no clue.

Detroit is now +3 -130 at SIA - glad I got in before the line moved. Also moving: Houston/Baltimore now at 38.

Cleveland is still +3 -110, though.

[DougOzzzz]

Oh for three. I suck.

[Easy E]

Ouch! ow!
and oy vey!

[DougOzzzz]

Philly +4.5 -105 at SIA
Seattle -3.5 +103 at Pinnacle.

I'm pounding the middle on this one. Too bad my SIA account almost died yesterday.