NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29

NoChance · #1 11-29-2005, 12:37 AM

Thanks LLXC for the PM giving me a heads up about this game. I had not even started looking for this yet as it's early in the season. Indeed, we have our first play this year.

(12) Illinois
North Carolina -2

Take North Carolina if you follow this trend.

MCS · #2 11-29-2005, 04:55 AM

Ha! I've been telling people North Carolina isn't as crappy as they seem to think. Vegas agrees with me.

(or maybe they really hate Illinois, which I think is actually more likely, but I like my first hypothesis better [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )

Indiana · #3 11-29-2005, 10:52 AM

I dont get this bet man. UNC lost 6 of their strong players from last year while Illinois keeps all the top players. Shouldn't this be an easy bet on Illinois? I checked Sagarin and it puts them at even, so with the game being played in Carolina -2 or -3 would make logical sense. However, one must look past the early Sagarin "data" in this game dont you think?

Indy

the34eagle · #4 11-29-2005, 12:18 PM

whoa whoa whoa. illinois did NOT keep all its top players. No offense, but if you think they did then sports betting clearly isnt for you. They lost their best player in deron williams to the NBA as well as luther head. Not to mention they lost roger powel. All they have left this year is Dee Brown and James Augustine. Im a big Illinois fan and I'm not sure if I'm going to touch this game tonight. We will see tho

Indiana · #5 11-29-2005, 01:50 PM

Yah I agree that they lost some, but I thought Carolina lost everybody. I do think that I'm a poor sports bettor to be honest. I was on the run of my life until that week the Eagles lost to the Cowboys (was that week 5 or 6??). I lost pretty much the whole roll that week. I have rebuilt though and I'm on another run after killing that Colts game last night, as well as the turkey games. I wonder if I too should stay away from the bball game tonight. Does anybody see any value in this game?

Indy

NoChance · #6 11-29-2005, 01:58 PM

I put my bet in last night. I play every one of these games that fits the trend. Many look ugly. That's good.

Here is more info on the game.

It looks like the line went down to -1.5 but now is back up to -2 at most places.

Easy E · #7 12-05-2005, 06:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I do think that I'm a poor sports bettor to be honest. I was on the run of my life until that week the Eagles lost to the Cowboys (was that week 5 or 6??). I lost pretty much the whole roll that week. I have rebuilt though and I'm on another run

Indy

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds as if you need to rethink your sports bankroll management, if this comment (and the Seahawks comment for tonight's game) is accurate.

LLXC · #8 12-05-2005, 09:06 PM

I believe we have a play tomorrow.

NIOWA -1 over IOWA.

kyro · #9 11-29-2005, 02:13 PM

It's a trend. It doesn't have to make sense.

MCS · #10 11-29-2005, 08:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I checked Sagarin and it puts them at even, so with the game being played in Carolina -2 or -3 would make logical sense. However, one must look past the early Sagarin "data" in this game dont you think?

[/ QUOTE ]

I loooove Sagarin predictor, but I do agree that Sagarin data is weak this early in the season. I think that the line comes from two factors:

(1) UNC is better than most people think.
(2) Illinois is worse than most people think.

Maybe Illinois is a point or two better, but the game is at UNC, so there you go.

EDIT: Indy, I have no idea why you would take Illinois -2 when you could have gotten them at +2 early. There is no way that can be a good bet. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]