1/2 PokerStars

HighStakesPro · #1 10-27-2005, 02:06 AM

MP1 is typical 1/2 fish. I observed some hands he played and had made the following notes before this hand occurred:

Moron who only limps preflop, doesn't even reraise with KK, then raises on the turn AJ6A and is lucky that the preflop 3-bettor had QQ
Bets into a preflop raiser from out of position with just ace high, continued the bluff through the river and was called down.
raised preflop, probably with just high cards
limped in with 99 and made no bets on A25 flop,

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 raises, 2 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (7 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (5 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB raises, MP1 calls, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, MP1 calls.

River: (14 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 bets, Hero folds, SB folds
Final Pot: 14 BB

So it looks like he has AK, based on his check on the flop and his bet on the river after calling on the flop and cold-calling a bet and checkraise on the turn. Of course, I am also beaten by AQ, any other random king, or any pocket pair tens or higher, or by 98. Plus, there is the small blind, who has checked but could still have me beat. I showed this hand to a friend who insisted that it was a terrible fold, so I am posting the hand here to get the opinion of others. I know, it's a $27 pot and it costs just $2 to call, but the betting sequence made AK seem like such a likely hand, and the probability of him bluffing in that situation was very slim if not zero, so I folded.
After the SB folded I announced my hand and the SB said he had AT, the other player's hand remains unknown. What would you do?

P.S. I posted this also in the Small Stakes forum, and the first two responses were that I should fold preflop, one of them citing my note about him limping with KK. However, this indicates that he would probably play AA the same way, and maybe even QQ, which suggests that a raise represents high cards. It may be correct for me to fold preflop anyway, although I am in good position, but the point of the post and the question I have posed relates to the play on the river, not my starting hand requirements.

jason_t · #2 10-27-2005, 02:14 AM

Fold preflop.

bottomset · #3 10-27-2005, 02:26 AM

fold preflop

don't announce what you had

he's bluffed Ahi to the river right? he isn't good, he might think he can rep a K here, 15/1 is a good price

jakbse · #4 10-27-2005, 02:53 AM

I would make a crying call everytime, not even realizing that he probably held AK.

detruncate · #5 10-27-2005, 05:07 AM

Hi HighStakesPro.

If Villain raises as infrequently as you suggest it's an easy fold pf. Even if he limps all his PPs you're still going to be dominated way too often. If your hand isn't strong enough to 3-bet in a situation like this (and it isn't) you should almost always fold.

The river fold is very bad -- you only need to make a correct call 1 time in 15 for it to be neutral EV, and you seem to be up against someone fully capable of betting a worse hand.

lautzutao · #6 10-27-2005, 09:38 AM

How many callers would you need PF before you say this call is ok? I'm not saying this is a good coldcall against this particualr villian given his tendencies with limping pairs, but it's not AJo.

detruncate · #7 10-28-2005, 05:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
How many callers would you need PF before you say this call is ok? I'm not saying this is a good coldcall against this particualr villian given his tendencies with limping pairs, but it's not AJo.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not all about how many callers there will be, but we do have to find a way to get paid off when we connect solidly since we're not a huge favourite against his range. We should expect to be dominated quite often even if we rule out big pairs -- Villain isn't presented as someone likely to raise a broad range of aces or paint. We're going to have trouble getting away from the hand when an Ace flops. Our implied odds are already reduced since we're working in units of 2 SBs, and there are only so many bets we can make HU or 3-way, especially when we're concerned about domination. 4+ way we also get the ability to pump some of our draws to help add value to our hand.

I'm not happy giving up initiative and inviting company unless I think it's going to end up at least 4-5 way. BB is going to be getting correct odds to call with a broad range of hands even without any more company, and we lose some equity 3-way. I don't love the tradeoff unless I'm going to be more likely to be aggressively paid off when I connect solidly. When BB calls 2 more, he's making a considerable mistake most of the time. Even more so for SB.

I think we're much better off 3-betting if we're going to play, and it doesn't seem to make a lot of sense against this Villain unless his range is actually broader than OP suggested.

#8 10-27-2005, 06:43 AM

I'm not going to say anything other than: it's obviously bugging you - it's worth the call.

EDITED for everyone's benefit.

jason_t · #9 10-27-2005, 06:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not going to say anything other than: it's obviously bugging you - it's worth the $2 call.

[/ QUOTE ]

We make decisions in terms of size of the pot relative to the bet size; not in terms of actual dollar value.

#10 10-27-2005, 08:01 AM

*Grunch*

For 1bb I'd have called. You only have to beat him 7% of the time.

Admittedly it looks bleak, esp with the PFR. Any K, AA ,QQ ,JJ, TT even 22 will beat you, but judging by his history he doesn't play predictably, so you cannot take it for granted he beats you 2 pair.