Middle pair + overcard kicker

MadMat · #1 11-07-2005, 02:16 AM

SB is unknown
UTG+2 has up till this point been a passive calling station (over an hour at table with him)

Paradise Poker 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, Hero raises, Button calls, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (11 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, UTG+2 raises, MP3 calls, Hero ???

I think I've messed up my head with reading too many posts in a short space of time! I'm second guessing myself too much.
I folded in the hand, figuring that not closing the action there was too much chance of this coming back to me for 2 more bets, and am now wondering if getting 7:1+ good implied odds I should have found a call here???

FWIW I'm estimating 4.5 outs here (2 tens, 3 aces discounted to 1.5, and BD straight)

Mat

Aaron W. · #2 11-07-2005, 02:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW I'm estimating 4.5 outs here (2 tens, 3 aces discounted to 1.5, and BD straight)

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are you discounting your 3 aces to 1.5?

MadMat · #3 11-07-2005, 02:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FWIW I'm estimating 4.5 outs here (2 tens, 3 aces discounted to 1.5, and BD straight)

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are you discounting your 3 aces to 1.5?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I always have automatically discounted overcard outs since reading SSH, but in this case the A outs are pretty clean as AK is unlikely with no pre-flop raise.

Mat

Nick C · #4 11-07-2005, 07:33 AM

The decision seems close to me. To call, I think I'd need to be pretty confident SB would not 3-bet. But, also, if UTG+2 had been passive, like you say, then his flop raise worries me. He could, for instance, have KT, which would cut into your outs a lot.

Also, if MP3 is solid at all (I'm not assuming he is), then your aces may not be clean outs, since he could be chasing with QJ. And, actually, there's some chance that's what SB was betting on the flop.

Something else to consider is that with a flop bettor, a passive raiser, and a cold-caller all in the hand, it's entirely possible that some of the cards you're hoping to catch are in your opponents' hands.

Anyway, I would probably fold.

Webster · #5 11-07-2005, 07:59 AM

I would fold.To me it looks lie I now only have a drawing hand and somebody has the King.

#6 11-07-2005, 08:34 AM

I think the key thing here is to trust your read. There are tons of hands (perhaps most hands in full ring) where we don't need specific reads. But we've been paying attention to villain for the past hour for such a time as this. If he's suddenly raising when there are ovecards to our pair, its time to fold. If we had a stronger additional draw beyond the bdsd, that would be different but the T looks pretty lonely against two bets from a calling station.

imported_The Vibesman · #7 11-07-2005, 10:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
UTG+2 has up till this point been a passive calling station (over an hour at table with him)

[/ QUOTE ]

With this read, I'm usually calling the flop raise and folding the turn unimproved.

MadMat · #8 11-07-2005, 05:33 PM

FWIW heres how the full hand played out

Paradise Poker 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, Hero raises, Button calls, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (11 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, UTG+2 raises, MP3 calls, Hero folds, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+2 bets, MP3 folds, Button calls, SB calls.

River: (12.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+2 bets, Button folds, SB calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

Results in white below: 
SB has Qs Kd (two pair, kings and tens).
UTG+2 has Ad Ks (two pair, kings and tens).
Outcome: UTG+2 wins 14.50 BB.