Can I fold here ?

[Felipe]

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Why would I raise the turn? I'm behind, and know it, so it's not for value, and I can't see him folding for one more bet here either!
I think even calling is marginal as spiking the straight could well only give me half the pot

Mat

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why would you call the turn if you ARE behind. and why the river call when its VERY VERY VERY VERY likely he/she's got an A.

[MadMat]

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if you're behind and you know it, why would you call- i'm assuming Hero knows he's up against AK/Q or trips.

the OP might be speaking out of result-oriented thinking, but seeing as SB is unknown, looking at the hand, i can't be certain that he is behind. i do however think raising is a bad option unless you're willing to fold to a 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

An unknown 3-betting - I put him on a big pair or AK, most probably a big pair

I had 8 outs to beat AA-JJ and 4 outs to chop with AK, with 7BB already in the pot, and at least 1 BB, maybe 2 more from him on the river if I hit I just didn't see a fold here.

Mat

[Felipe]

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why would I raise the turn? I'm behind, and know it,

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calling is the worst option, so fold then.

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Can you please educate me as to why calling is the worst option here?

[/ QUOTE ]

take some time to think about it. What does calling accomplish? Raising might induce a worse, or better hand to fold. Calling won't. Folding saves you money. calling won't

Raising allows you to be in the drivers seat and control the action. You can also raise to see how much your opponent likes his hand. Calling can't do these things. Calling is usually for slowplaying or when your last or 2nd-last to act and you can be quite certain you will close the action (say, for example, you were drawing and didn't want to fold or raise)

[hizo1]

Ok thinking out loud...

The fact that villain hasn't played a hand in an entire orbit makes you think tightish... on the turn you're behind all of a TAG's three-betting hands except for 99 and maybe KQ.

You have six outs against AA
You have two + .5 x 8 = 6 outs against KK
You have 8 outs against QQ, JJ, TT
You have 1.5 against AK

Now I don't know how to reconcile all the alternatives and outs, but is calling still wrong KNOWING you're behind? I think we can give ourselves 5-6 outs given the options above no? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[hizo1]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising might induce a worse, or better hand to fold. Calling won't. Folding saves you money. calling won't

Calling is usually for slowplaying or when your last or 2nd-last to act and you can be quite certain you will close the action (say, for example, you were drawing and didn't want to fold or raise)

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I *think* we can establish with 95% certainty that we're behind on this turn, and as such we'll probably get three-bet if we raise. We are last to act on the turn and we're drawing to a decent number of outs against most three betting hands except AK. Please correct me as to why calling is still wrong here.

[hizo1]

hmm... I think I'm liking the fold more and more... even if we do have 5-6 outs the pot is only 6 BBs when it comes to us on the turn.

[@bsolute_luck]

don't look at me. i was simply commenting on the OP's comments that he KNOWS he's behind- to what he never said, but you have to figure, if that is the case, most 3-bet preflop hands you're looking at 2 outs for the Q and that's if you're not already behind to trips, so it's a fold.

that said, my first post said i think he played the hand fine. i think he lost on the river, but i'll make the crying call.

[GrunchCan]

This hand looks fine to me.

Calling the flop is mandatory. Raising would be bad, since we have no hand and no FE. We have odds to draw to the straight, so we must call. SB almost always has an overpair here of KK or AA. AK is possible, JJ also, AJ is remotely possible.

We improve on the turn, and if ever there was a point when we should fold, this was it. But there are more hands that the opponent could have that we are drawing live against than we are drawing dead against, so calling is probably close to neutral. Raising would be bad.

We improve yet again on the river, and now our hand has a slim chance of being best. How slim? We're probably good more often than 1:8, so I think we need to call this river. I expect to see AA most often, followed by KK, then AK.

Edit: I dont know why I didnt see how opponent improved when we did, but on the river there is no hand that we are ahead of. Fold the river.

[MadMat]

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Qc Kd (two pair, kings and queens).
SB has Ad Kc (straight, ace high).
Outcome: SB wins 9 BB. </font>

[xenthebrain]

Against which hands we win 1 out of 8 times?