How much $EV will you give up?

[Moonsugar]

An argument with adanthar in another thread got me thinking. Instead of hijacking that thread even more than I already have I will start this new one.

Here is the situation:

Typical Party SnG payout, 6 people left, you are UTG with 1000 other stack sizes are: 1400 , 600, 1000, 1800, 2200 (bb). Blinds are 100/200. Blinds will increase to 150/300 in 9 hands. Opponents are about as good as you.

If pushing is -$EV (according to ICM) it could still be a worthwhile move so that you preserve your FE.

Questions: How much -$EV will you accept in a push here to preserve your FE? Can you quantify how much future, uncertain FE is worth? How?

Follow up: If the blinds were going to 150/300 next hand how much more $EV would you be willing to give up in a push here?

[golfcchs]

Whats FE?

[Moonsugar]

Fold equity. That is your equity in a pot by having enough chips to make your opponents fold their hands when you go all-in.

[Moonsugar]

Where are all you "push any 2 UTG" people telling me how to calculate how much my FE is worth?

[raptor517]

i dont like doing that. people realize that you can be pushing a LOT of hands there, and will loosen up their calling reqs. if yer gonna push any 2 in a spot like that, do it utg +1 at least, though i sometimes will just eat a blind. 700 DOES still have fe. holla

[adanthar]

First off, blinds increasing in 9 hands are different than blinds increasing in any other number. But no matter.

Second, if something is -$EV, by definition, you shouldn't do it. The point is that the ICM/eastbay's tool do not work properly in close situations and almost everything that they say is very close or even plain close is actually a push or a call.

This does not mean you should be pushing 32o, because that's not close. QJ is kinda close *according to the ICM* in the other direction and is actually totally automatic.

I suspect what's actually 'close' when you do take all of this into account is a hand like JT.

edit: or, you could put it that way in far less sentences vvv

[Moonsugar]

Can you answer the questions I asked?

I don't think YOU can logically make a case why QJ push should be 'totally automatic'. I believe it is 'totally automatic' because you have been doing it and it is habit. But that doesn't make it correct. I want to know how you know 32 is so bad, QJ is automatic and JT is close. What factors go into your decision?

If the bb was t30 you would not think JT was a close all-in decision here. It is obvious that the reduction in future FE caused by the oncoming blinds is what is driving your decision. How does one know that a certain reduction in stack size is too much to accept? When you offer your opp. less than 4:1? Less than 2:1? For 10 steal opportunities? For 5?

A discussion on these factors would be very helpful.

[adanthar]

You're missing the forest for the trees. Loss of FE is one of several factors but by no means the only one, and they are not even all quantifiable.

A weird example that should still intuitively make sense: It's an hour into an SNG with 300/600 blinds and, through an amazing coincidence involving eight way all ins preflop, the chip stacks look like this:

SB: 7000
You (BB): 2992
8 other people: 1 chip apiece

It's folded to the SB, who goes all in with two cards or possibly one card. You have aces. What do you do?

In this situation, I don't even have to look at the ICM to know it will say to fold, as will eastbay's tool. And yet, if you fold, three things will happen:

1)You will lose this 600 chips and the next 300 on the SB
2)The short stacks will sometimes bust and sometimes double up to 2, 4, or 8 chips while the blinds circle the table faster and faster and you keep folding every hand
3)You will eventually wind up all in with the luckiest short stack in a race for third while the big stack laughs at you and wins

So, of course you have to call. FE here is a non-factor except as to the big stack, and since he'll still have 4K chips left when he loses you won't be able to bust him before you hit HU. But guess what? In the meantime, you'll have done the same to him and taken away a lot more chips than just the ones you won with the aces.

Going back to the QJ hand, in other words, the reason QJ is not close is because of the winning percentage it has against a likely calling range. Against a certain opponent who folds Q9o but calls K8o, it's not so good because it will never be over 40-45% to win when you are called. Against almost everyone else, you either have way too much FE *or* are closer to even or favored in a flip that will give you even more FE when you do win it.

That's about as much as I'm ever going to write on this subject until I publish a book about it. If you don't get it from here, start by figuring out exactly why it is a bad idea to open push AK in level 1.

[Moonsugar]

[ QUOTE ]
Y

A weird example that should still intuitively make sense: It's an hour into an SNG with 300/600 blinds and, through an amazing coincidence involving eight way all ins preflop, the chip stacks look like this:

SB: 7000
You (BB): 2992
8 other people: 1 chip apiece

It's folded to the SB, who goes all in with two cards or possibly one card. You have aces. What do you do?

In this situation, I don't even have to look at the ICM to know it will say to fold,

[/ QUOTE ]

You should have looked. ICM says call. And to use your favorite pharase: IT IS EASY.

Can't wait for the book, it should be as enlightening as all your other drivel. LOL.

[adanthar]

Being sleepy this morning, I managed to botch the ICM calc three times, and on the fourth time around, I admit that the ICM does say to call aces. Of course, it also says to fold kings in a not particularly close fashion (61.17 vs. 59.32 in a $100 SNG). So, if your strategy in this spot is to hope to get exactly aces, the ICM works great!

Talk about forest for the trees again...yeah, time for the ignore list.