JTs, top pair and flush draw

[tomtemor]

I really felt stupid when I made this play, stupid because I really don't know the odds in situations like this one. I pushed becuase I "thought" it was the right play.

I knew button had an over pair and I knew I had a very strong hand, but as I said, I don't know if this play is +EV. I sure as hell knew he wouldn't fold and I also knew I liked to see the turn and the river and I decided to push.

What I want to know is; was this play good, +EV, etc.?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter

MP1 ($78.15)
MP2 ($22.80)
Hero ($30.70)
CO ($24.40)
Button ($15.31)
SB ($12.25)
BB ($8.40)
UTG ($41.05)
UTG+1 ($26.65)
UTG+2 ($25.10)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls $0.25, MP1 calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $1.2</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls $0.95, Hero calls $0.95, CO folds.

Flop: ($4.45) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $5</font>, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $15</font>, Button calls $9.11 (All-In).

Final Pot: $33.56

[boondockst]

best case: (Not jacks and no heart for backdoor flush draw)

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1202296
pokenum -h jh th - ac as -- 4h ts 2h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ts 4h 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Jh Th 493 49.80 497 50.20 0 0.00 0.498
As Ac 497 50.20 493 49.80 0 0.00 0.502


Jacks would be worse but not that bad

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1202298
pokenum -h jh th - jc js -- 4h ts 2h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ts 4h 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Jh Th 427 43.13 563 56.87 0 0.00 0.431
Js Jc 563 56.87 427 43.13 0 0.00 0.569

Nothing wrong with the move as he could likely have folded...I take it from your tone that you lost but it's a pretty standard move.

[xorbie]

Given his betsize and your equity you have to push.

[kitaristi0]

Yeah, I like this push too.

[kyro]

If you're certain he has an overpair. Just call and fold if you don't hit one of your 1000 outs.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
Given his betsize and your equity you have to push.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we're stacking him regardless of the turn/river, why get our money in if we can still get out?

[djoyce003]

as you can tell from the math it's an OK push. Part of what makes these really effective is that sometimes you get a fold..but if you know you have no fold equity this play becomes slightly less good. However, given the number of outs you have, if you just call the flop and the turn bricks you are going to be facing a turn push and then your call becomes much worse. I like a push here for a variety of reasons, mainly, you want to see 2 cards, and you pick up a gazillion calls from this guy later.

He only has $9 left, you gotta push. He's gonna push the turn no matter what.

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Given his betsize and your equity you have to push.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we're stacking him regardless of the turn/river, why get our money in if we can still get out?

[/ QUOTE ]

If we just call, it's a $15 pot on the turn and villain has only $9 left, so after he pushes we're getting like 2.5:1 to call with like 14 outs, meaning we have odds to call that too. Might as well push it in and once in a blue moon get a fold.