Deciding to go to River

[colpres]

If you think you have the best hand after the turn, bet or raise your opponent, but the river could complete an OESD, flush, or set, was it ever a mistake to have continued? Say for example you hold top pair like Jacks, two small pair, or other moderate hand. There is no 4 to a straight or 4 flush on board, so the river card must make the draw. If your read is that you are currently ahead, are there circumstances where it would be better to fold than make the turn bet and give the opponent the draw?

[tor]

Being ahead and folding seems like an infinitely negative EV play to me.

[GrunchCan]

Any attempt to make this decision without taking in to account the size of the pot reflects a major problem in your game.

There are no generalities in poker, except one: the size of the pot always matters.

Read SSH, and welcome to the forums.

[PayTheSnucka]

[ QUOTE ]
Being ahead and folding seems like an infinitely negative EV play to me.

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Not to be picky but this made me think. Suppose (excuse the ridiculousness of the scenario for the sake of science)

You have 22 and you know you are ahead after the turn (unimproved). There are 9 other players in the hand and the betting gets capped. Its 4 cold to you - do you need to know the pot size to fold this? There's a descent chance that you are drawing dead. If you take credit for 1 out, then there would have to be 180 bets in the pot to call 4 (not counting the reverse implied odds of having to likely call at least 2 bets on the river). By the turn, there could only be 70 bets in the pot if it has been capped all the way (2 bets each preflop, 2 bets each after flop, then 123444444 on the turn). Even if you knew that your set would win if you improved, there still could not be enough bets in the pot to justify calling.

Just thought I'd be a pest.