The p[ot is big enough for this... isn't it?

[flair1239]

Hero is MP2 with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

5/10 Party

Button is an average player 22/5/1.5 WTSD 34 W$SD 52

MP1 is is tight passive pre-flop and folds a bit much post flop 22/3/1 Fold to flop bet 45%, fold to turn bet 40% WTSD 30 W$SD 57

PF: UTG limps, MP1 limps, I raise in MP2, Button three bets, blinds fold, all call

Flop: (4-players) (13 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

UTG checks, MP1 checks, I check, Button bets, UTG calls, MP1 calls, I raise, Button calls, UTG folds, MP1 calls

Turn: (3-players) (10BB) 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

MP1 checks, I bet....

Thoughts: Does not need to work often. The can still draw out on the river about 20% of the time, maybe more if one of my overs is good. Flop check raise is an obvious value raise, tha could be interpreted as a set. I think I get folds here somewhere between 5-7% of the time, and I think combined with my outs it is a profitable play.

[mtdoak]

I prefer doing this in position. If both your overs are clean, this should be a standard play. It disguises your hand and you may be able to collect 2 bets from someone chasing a smaller flush. Works better heads up and you can always take a free showdown. Once in a while you'll win the pot right there.

[Fat Nicky]

I like the flop check raise...a 3-bettor w/a 5% PFR stat usually spells a big hand so betting out and having him raise to clear the field probably doesn't do much for us since our overcard outs might not be good, so might as well get value from our hand.

I'm a bit iffy about the turn bet, because I'm not sure how often the button is gonna fold here. There is also the possilbility that he will raise a big hand. I know checking pretty much gives our hand away, but I just can't see the button folding enough to make this worthwhile.

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the flop check raise...a 3-bettor w/a 5% PFR stat usually spells a big hand so betting out and having him raise to clear the field probably doesn't do much for us since our overcard outs might not be good, so might as well get value from our hand.

I'm a bit iffy about the turn bet, because I'm not sure how often the button is gonna fold here. There is also the possilbility that he will raise a big hand. I know checking pretty much gives our hand away, but I just can't see the button folding enough to make this worthwhile.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is my standard thought as well. However I looked at the pot size, figured I could have as many as 12 clean outs and decided that they would not have to fold even near 10% of the time to make this profitable.

Combined with the fact that MP1 like to fold, I thought it might be a thinnish EV situation. Plus the fact that I was not sure if checking to the button would get me to the river free, so I might be calling a bet anyways.

The button was not over aggro, so I thought he would probably think twice before raising me, because as I said I think the flop CR could easily be interpreted as a big hand seeking value.

[Fat Nicky]

you bring up good points..I guess I am just doubtful that we get both of these players to fold on the turn enough. I am also not sure how much our EV goes up if we fold out MP1.

Since we're calling the turn anyways,, and the button is not over aggro making a raise less likely, I guess a turn bet isn't so bad.

[flair1239]

Ran some quick math.

Assumptions:

1. I will always win when I make my flush.
2. Ignoring potential overcard outs.
3. Disregarding river action (either additional bets gained or paying off on a K or Q.)

1. Turn gets check through: EV: 1.95BB/100
2. I check, button bets, other player calls, I call: EV: 1.53BB/100

3. I check, Button bets, other player folds: EV: 1.34BB/100

4. I bet, they fold 5% of the time, or I get one call: 1.77BB/100

5. I bet they fold 5% of the time, or I get two calls: 1.96BB/100

6. I bet get raised, other player folds: .73BB/100

7. I bet get raised, other player calls: 1.12BB/100

So basically, the decision comes down to how often the button will bet the turn if I check to him and how often he will raise when I bet.

[ErrantNight]

i'm worried about your overcard outs... that mp1 likes to laydown is probably enough to make this play, and i'm not particularly concerned about a button raise. what do you do on a river blank? will button fold unimproved overson the river if you fire another bullet (and he calls the turn)?

[toss]

I think anyone who called the turn is likely going to call the river with Ace high in a large 12BB pot.

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm worried about your overcard outs... that mp1 likes to laydown is probably enough to make this play, and i'm not particularly concerned about a button raise. what do you do on a river blank? will button fold unimproved overson the river if you fire another bullet (and he calls the turn)?

[/ QUOTE ]

I figured if he did not drop on the turn, he probably would not drop on the river, at least not with anything that I did not beat.

I thought that in relation to the pot size, there was a decent chance he would lay down a A-face type of hand because:

1. I think my flop checkraise might tend to overrepresent my hand to some players.

2. He had a reasonable WTSD percentage, which kind of tells me, he is capable of folding weak made hands in some situations.

[ErrantNight]

then me likey