AQs - count your outs?

[kitaristi0]

Though unlikely if he pushes, your As and Qs might be outs (plus some backdoor straight outs), so that swings it to call IMO.

[Morrek]

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Though unlikely if he pushes, your As and Qs might be outs (plus some backdoor straight outs), so that swings it to call IMO.

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Yes they very well might be, totally depends on the player really. And you have backdoor royal draw!!

[Skuzzy]

Cant let a backdoor royal go by [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Have introduced my girlfriend to online poker. She's playing .5/1 limit. I told her to fold JcQh UTG she did and watched as her would have been flopped nut str8 turned into a Royal. This is like a fishing tale of the one that got away. ( She never folds JQo now [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] )

[swolfe]

raise to $20

[Hattifnatt]

I like to raise a little more than that because:

1. More fold-equity
2. Easier to call a push

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to $3</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls $3, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $3, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($10.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $7</font>, MP3 folds, Hero ?

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You don't have enough information yet to determine how many outs you have. Find it out, raise him here an amount consistent with what you've been doing. Making the bet $20 to go should get that question answered quite nicely.

[Spekkio]

Raise to $60...if he pushes, call, if not then it's all going in on the turn no matter what falls. The worst he probably has is AJ or an over-pair, and the only way you have less than 12 outs against him is if he has AA.

The power in this hand is fold equity plus it's a coin-flip if he calls.

Whatever you do, do NOT raise to $20. The pot already has $17 in it, and you're only barely more than min-raising. $30 minimum raise here, but I like $60 because it puts him into an all-in or fold decision.

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The worst he probably has is AJ or an over-pair, and the only way you have less than 12 outs against him is if he has AA.

The power in this hand is fold equity plus it's a coin-flip if he calls.

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Or, you know, JJ.

The key to this hand is to play consistently with past plays, with the nice kicker of getting your opponent to define his hand against your strong draw. Raising to $60 is absurd, you can easily get the same information/reaction for less. If you want to stronghand it, raise to $40, this leaves you an out if an awful card (i.e. board pair, king) comes.

[BobboFitos]

make it 30 total

[BobboFitos]

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OK, is the semi bluff something you do only against a player who Cbets lots and may fold here to a decent raise ( say $20 here)?

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Not necessarily. Although it makes raising the flop (in this equation) preferable. It's about pot equity.
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What's your plan for a blank turn if he calls?

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If the jack pairs, I'm betting. If board pairs below, I may bet. Otherwise I'm checking.

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Are you hoping he checks the turn and gives you a free look at the river?

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Pretty much. If I hit an ace or queen, I'm checking as well, but I'll call (or bet myself) on the end if I dont improve further.